论两类不同性质的矛盾:外汇措施与汇率安排——探寻IMF与WTO对人民币汇率义务的管辖关系

廓清IMF与WTO的关系以确定人民币汇率义务的管辖归属和衡量依据,需要区分外汇措施和汇率安排.由于外汇措施与贸易措施具有交叉重叠的效果,IMF与WTO在以上领域存在需要廓清的复杂关系,但是,汇率安排基本上属于IMF专属管辖,GATT的有关规定与此无涉.西方的有关指控属于汇率安排问题,应由IMF依IMF协定第4条进行监督,而不应由WTO争端解决机制解决.     

Asian Currency Crisis and the International Monetary Fund, 10 Years Later: Overview*

This paper is an overview of the Asian currency crisis in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea in 1997–1998, with an emphasis on the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It provides a detailed account of the development of the crisis and analyses and evaluates the content of IMF advice and its consequences. The size of the IMF package for each of these three countries is judged to have been too small. This paper also has a comparative perspective; the Mexican crisis is reviewed as a precursor to the Asian crisis to see what the IMF learned, and how it prepared, for future crises. The causes of the crises and IMF conditionality for the post‐Asian crisis countries, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina, are also compared to the Asian crisis countries. By agreeing to maintain a fixed exchange rate, for example, the IMF is judged to have been “softer” in its approach to the post‐Asian crisis countries.     

浅论IMF的缺陷及改革

IMF在促进国际货币合作,促进国际贸易的扩大和平衡发展,促进国际汇兑的稳定,制定国际收支与汇率的规则与秩序等方面,发挥了重要的作用。但作为国际金融危机拯救者的IMF,在维护国际金融稳定与发展中尚存有诸多缺陷,面对当今国际金融界新的形势和其自身的软肋,IMF的改革势在必行。     

论美国控制下的IMF与金融霸权

近年来，随着经济全球化的发展，国际金融组织在国际经济关系中的影响越来越大，以美国为首的西方国家，利用在IMF等重大的国际经济组织中的主导地位，制定有利于己的游戏规则，不顾世界各国经济发展水平不一的客观事实，别有用心地推行金融自由化，对一些发展中国家由此引起的金融危机，西方大国则通过IMF等国际组织提出苛刻的经济援助条件，借此推行金融霸权，严重侵害了他国的经济利益。本文通过分析瑚F的规则制定及其近年来在国际金融危机中的表现，揭示了美国等西方大国推行金融全球化的实质，并提出发展中国家防范金融霸权的对策。     

Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations

We investigate the effects of IMF stabilization programs, and the reasons behind the unusually high IMF activity and relatively low program completion rates in Latin America. We base our tests on a panel, and distinguish between IMF program approvals and completion. We find that Latin America has higher output costs of IMF programs (especially when completed), no improvement in the current account, and a much higher likelihood of program failure and recidivism than other regions. The common finding that entering into an IMF-supported program incurs real short-run costs on the economy is entirely driven by the experiences in Latin America.     

Beyond the Optimistic Curse: A New Multiscenario Approach to Debt Sustainability Assessment

While a careful and accurate debt sustainability assessment (DSA) is crucial for an efficient macroeconomic management, the most widely used framework introduced by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suffers from several drawbacks that render its results overoptimistic and misleading. In this article, we correct the methodology by demonstrating how policy makers can develop country-specific “intermediate” forecasts of the determinants of debt dynamics, in addition to coherent “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios. Our application to the case of Egypt illustrates that the debt-to-GDP ratio could increase to more than 100 percent by 2015, in contrast with the 61 percent projected by the IMF in 2010.     

Fuelled Power: Oil,Financiers and Central Bank Policy in Nigeria

While the literature on business power and global finance has illuminated the ways in which financial institutions limit the policy autonomy of states in developing countries, we know much less about the circumstances under which the power of financiers is undermined. In this article, I advance explanations of these circumstances by arguing that state access to natural resource revenues reduces the power of financial institutions and enhances the capacity of the state to pursue central bank policies which violate the interests of major financiers. I employ a case study of central bank policy in Nigeria to probe this argument and find evidence that supports the claim that whenever the Nigerian government's access to resource revenues increased, the state's capacity to diverge from financiers’ preferred central bank policies and to advance its own preferences increased as well. The analysis provides the basis for broader propositions about the policy space of developing countries vis-à-vis financial institutions and the variability of structural power.     

金融危机中IMF援助机制和对国家主权的影响

在这次由美国的次级债危机引发的世界金融危机中,各方英雄逐鹿,我们意外地发现IMF在这次危机中无所作为,不禁让人想起在1998年东南亚金融危机中IMF的作为,本文就指分析IMF对受危机国的源猪及其对国家主权的影响.展现国际政治和国际经济的密切关系.     

声音＋数字

所有与过度投资有关的历史场景都会以一场金融危机或长期的低增长来谢幕。——有＂末日博士＂之称的努里尔.鲁比尼语出惊人地指出,中国经济大概会在2013年后遭遇一场硬着陆。 朱民是中国在IMF里的一张牌,如何打好需要深谋远虑的智慧。——中国外交部发言人洪磊说。7月26日,中国央行前副行长朱民正式出任TMF副总裁，     

4％的CPI

调高通货膨胀目标，为应对潜在冲击而预留政策空间？IMF三位重量级人物对稳定通胀的传统共识提出了挑战。