PITFALLS IN CROSS‐SECTION STUDIES WITH INTEGRATED REGRESSORS: A SURVEY AND NEW DEVELOPMENTS

In cross‐section studies, if the dependent variable is I(0) but the regressor is I(1), the true slope must be zero in the resulting “unbalanced regression.” A spuriously significant relationship may be found in large cross‐sections, however, if the integrated regressor is related to a stationary variable that enters the DGP but is omitted from the regression. The solution is to search for the related stationary variable, in some cases the first difference of the integrated regressor, in other cases, a categorical variable that can take on limited number of values which depend on the integrated variable. We present an extensive survey, new developments, and applications particularly in finance.     

Predictive regressions under asymmetric loss: Factor augmentation and model selection

This paper discusses the specifics of forecasting using factor-augmented predictive regressions under general loss functions. In line with the literature, we employ principal component analysis to extract factors from the set of predictors. In addition, we also extract information on the volatility of the series to be predicted, since the volatility is forecast-relevant under non-quadratic loss functions. We ensure asymptotic unbiasedness of the forecasts under the relevant loss by estimating the predictive regression through the minimization of the in-sample average loss. Finally, we select the most promising predictors for the series to be forecast by employing an information criterion that is tailored to the relevant loss. Using a large monthly data set for the US economy, we assess the proposed adjustments in a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise for various variables. As expected, the use of estimation under the relevant loss is found to be effective. Using an additional volatility proxy as the predictor and conducting model selection that is tailored to the relevant loss function enhances the forecast performance significantly.     

Economic design of one-sided screening procedures based on a correlated variable with all parameters unknown

Summary Economic design of one-sided screening procedures for improving outgoing product quality based on a screening variable is considered for the case with all parameters unknown. It is assumed that the performance and screening variables are jointly normally distributed and that costs are incurred by screening inspection, acceptance of an imperfect item, and disposition of a rejected one. A method for finding optimal cutoff value based on the predictive distribution is presented.     

浅议会计委派制

分析了“会计委派制”产生的背景和目前存在的问题．提出了会计体制改革的方向应该是：继续国有企业的体制改革，特别是股份制改革；建立司法监督、行政监督、社会监督和企业内部会计监督相结合的的监督管理体系；建立一种“立法型”的会计监督模式。     

Modelling the inflation process in transition economies: Empirical comparison of Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic

This paper starts from the observation that inflation in transition economies appears to be persistently high and volatile and attempts to provide some empirical characterisation of the inflation process in three such transition economies: Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. We first consider the role of monetary growth as a major causal factor for inflation in these economies, and argue that the evidence provides rather weak support for the causal relationship. We then propose a transition economy cost-plus model and estimate this using the equilibrium-correction modelling (ECM) strategy augmented by introduction of a number of transitory factors and changes in the internal structure of the real economy which we believe may have had a significant impact on inflation in these economies. We show that this approach enables us to account for long-run inflation in these economies from the early 1980s to the present despite the turbulence of the latter part of the sample period. Our results support wage and exchange rate based inflation policies.     

韩国企业对中国直接投资的实情分析和决定因素

文章通过对韩国企业对中国直接投资的实情分析,考察不同规模企业的特征,并依 据投资国的国内因素分析了对中国直接投资的决定因素。     

全球化背景下的新农村建设

建设社会主义新农村是应对全球化的必然选择。全球化既给社会主义新农村建设提供了有利条件，也给其带来了不利影响。在全球化不断加深的趋势下，必须按照“生产发展、生活宽裕、乡风文明、村容整洁、管理民主”的总体要求，扎实推进社会主义新农村建设。     

技术独董、经济政策不确定性与企业创新产出

创新产出是企业创新能力的直观体现,也是企业价值创造的源泉。以2008—2017年披露了专利授权信息的中国A股上市公司为样本,研究了独立董事技术专长对企业创新产出的影响。结果显示：（1）技术独立董事显著地促进了企业创新产出,且这种促进作用受到经济政策不确定性的负向调节;（2）技术独立董事是通过提高企业的创新投入来促进企业的创新产出的;（3）技术独立董事兼职席位与企业创新产出呈倒U型关系。根据上述研究结论,企业应当增加技术独立董事的引入并适当限制技术独立董事在其他企业兼职的行为,以充分发挥技术独立董事的创新驱动效应,提高企业创新产出。     

CEO的金融背景会提高企业全要素生产率吗?

作为最重要的人力资源之一，CEO的个人特点对企业全要素生产率具有重要影响。我们采用2008-2017年间全部A股上市公司作研究样本，结果发现：金融背景的CEO具有更冒险的行事风格，更熟悉金融领域操作规范，能够帮助企业提高创新水平和投资效率，从而提高企业全要素生产率，并且在采用DID控制内生性后依然显著。进一步地，CEO的这种影响在更能够发挥CEO个人影响力的低盈利企业和非“北上广深”地区企业更显著。本文的结论佐证了“高层梯队理论”和“烙印理论”中CEO个人特点能够对企业生产经营产生影响的结论，同时，为今后企业是否聘任金融背景的CEO提供新的思考，金融背景的CEO虽然具有更冒险的行事风格，为企业带了一定风险，但也能够在提高企业生产率水平中发挥一定作用。     

MSE-improvement of the least squares estimator by dropping variables

It is well known that dropping variables in regression analysis decreases the variance of the least squares (LS) estimator of the remaining parameters. However, after elimination estimates of these parameters are biased, if the full model is correct. In his recent paper, Boscher (1991) showed that the LS-estimator in the special case of a mean shift model (cf. Cook and Weisberg, 1982) which assumes no “outliers” can be considered in the framework of a linear regression model where some variables are deleted. He derived conditions under which this estimator outperforms the LS-estimator of the full model in terms of the mean squared error (MSE)-matrix criterion. We demonstrate that this approach can be extended to the general set-up of dropping variables. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the MSE-matrix superiority of the LS-estimator in the reduced model over that in the full model are derived. We also provide a uniformly most powerful F-statistic for testing the MSE-improvement.