The Impact of Public Expenditure and International Trade on Agricultural Productivity in China

The “industry nurturing agriculture” reforms and World Trade Organization accession led to dramatic growth in public expenditure and international trade in China’s agricultural sector. This article aims to estimate the effects of public expenditure and trade on agricultural productivity in China for 2004–2015. A semi-parametric production function with shape constraints is introduced to derive more accurate productivity before the productivity determinants are analyzed with an emphasis on public expenditure and trade. The empirical result shows that public expenditure and exports can effectively improve agricultural productivity, while imports have no significant effects. Policy implications are discussed in the context of supply-side reforms.     

The government revenue and government expenditure nexus: empirical evidence from nine Asian countries

The nexus between government revenue and government expenditure has been an important topic in public economics. In this paper, we investigate evidence for cointegration and causality between government revenue and government expenditure for nine Asian countries. We use the recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration and the conventional F-test to examine Granger causality. Our empirical results suggest that for three out of the nine countries government revenue and government expenditure are cointegrated. Our results on the direction of causation are mixed: (a) for Indonesia, Singapore, Sri Lanka in the short-run and for Nepal in both the short- and long-run we find support for the tax-and-spend hypothesis; (b) Indonesia and Sri Lanka are in conformity with the spend-and-tax hypothesis in the long-run; and (c) for other countries there is evidence of neutrality.     

中国大中型造纸企业技术创新机制探讨

建立和健全大中型企业以技术创新为核心的技术进步的内在机制 ,保障提高技术创新的绩效是目前亟待解决的问题。本文根据 2 0 0 0年中国科技统计年鉴中的数据 ,对大中型造纸企业在技术创新方面存在的主要问题进行分析 ,就如何完善其动力机制和运行机制提出建议     

Sanov meets Cramér again

We introduce a new method for proving large-deviation principles (LDPs). This method amounts to "mixing" a collection of LDPs with a sequence of probability measures that obeys itself an LDP. As an illustration, we construct from empirical measures a sequence of capacity-valued maps that can be considered as an indexed collection of LDPs. The index 1 coincides with Sanov's theorem. By taking a Poisson mixture we establish a new connection with Cramér's theorem.     

Endogenous Growth and Negative Externalities

Received March 5, 2001; revised version received August 5, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003     

蒙代尔-弗莱明模型在发展中大国的适用与延伸

M-F模型是开放经济宏观经济学的基本模型,其存在的缺陷和局限是理论拓展的主要方向。本文对M-F模型的前提假定和分析过程作出了放松和修正,使其适用于发展中大国的情形。并在M-F模型的货币政策效应分析基础上,提出M-F模型在发展中大国的延伸分析方法,即Semi-M-F模型分析方法,指出发展中大国的货币政策是部分起作用的。最后,对Semi-M-F模型分析方法在中国的应用进行评述。     

When to accept a sequence of gambles

When is a sequence of gambles, which is initially rejected eventually accepted? The eventual acceptance is defined as a pair property between the utility function and the sequences of gambles. A sequence of gambles is accepted when the gambles follow a large deviation principle and the utility function is non-satiated and bounded from below in a certain way. The number of gambles required for acceptance is computed.     

基于截尾分布理论预测开放式基金大额赎回量

提出了开放式基金的巨额赎回量和大额赎回量的概念，将复合泊阿松分布和截尾分布理论运用在大额赎回量概率计算之中，得到了计算公式。由于开放式基金流动性风险主要来自于大额赎回量，因此使用截尾分布方法预测未来近期的大额赎回量更合适。推导出了正态分布下大额赎回量的期望和方差计算公式。为基金管理人合理规避这种流动性风险提供了一种预测方法。     

Probability theory in fuzzy sample spaces

This paper tries to develop a neat and comprehensive probability theory for sample spaces where the events are fuzzy subsets of The investigations are focussed on the discussion how to equip those sample spaces with suitable -algebras and metrics. In the end we can point out a unified concept of random elements in the sample spaces under consideration which is linked with compatible metrics to express random errors. The result is supported by presenting a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem and a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for these kinds of random elements, formulated simultaneously w.r.t. the selected metrics. As a by-product the line of reasoning, which is followed within the paper, enables us to generalize as well as to bring together already known results and concepts from literature.Acknowledgement. The author would like to thank the participants of the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory for the intensive discussion of the paper. Especially he is indebted to Professors Diamond and Höhle whose remarks have helped to get deeper insights into the subject. Additionally, the author is grateful to one anonymous referee for careful reading and valuable proposals which have led to an improvement of the first draft.This paper was presented at the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory, Linz, Austria, February 5–9, 2002.     

Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

We investigate the role of international trade and proximity to war in international stock markets during the invasion of Ukraine by employing DiD designs and panel data comprising 70 stock markets. We find that differences in trade exposure to warring countries (trade effect) have a substantial and negative impact on non-European equity markets but are irrelevant for European markets. In contrast, differences in the distance to warring countries (proximity effect) have a significant and negative impact on European markets but have no bearing on non-European markets. We find that the relevance of rent from mineral, natural gas, and oil resources and the relevance of metals, ores, and fuels in exports operate as mitigators of the trade effect. Our paper provides valuable empirical evidence regarding the importance of mitigating the vulnerability of financial markets to international trade when a major war breaks out.