Correspondence to what? Coherence to what? What is good scenario-based decision making?

This paper provides a framework for the evaluation of scenario planning and other strategic decision making methods or techniques. If scenario planning is useful, we should be teaching it in schools and we as individuals should be using it to cope with the uncertainty inherent in modern life. A prerequisite to this is the need to identify why, where and how (in what way) scenario planning and other methods or techniques are useful. Here, I review evaluations of scenario planning. Taking a Brunswikian perspective, I highlight the issues that have failed to be addressed in this evaluation. I demonstrate that there are many ways in which scenario planning could be useful other than those that have appeared in previous discussions. These multiple routes are dependent upon the interaction between the individual organisation, the environment in which they are operating and the method being followed.     

数据仓库相关问题的探讨

综述了数据仓库的概念、特点、结构及其关键技术，对创建数据仓库系统过程中存在的有关问题进行了探讨，并展望了其发展趋势。     

Customer Profitability Analysis Reports for Resource Allocation: The Role of Complex Marketing Environments

Most decision making research in management accounting remains focused on cost information in a production context. Little is known on the relevance of customer profifitability analysis (CuPA) reports, which more accurately reflect revenue and marketing support variations acrosscustomers, for marketing decisions. This study uses an experimental design to examine the impact of such reports on resource allocation decisions (that affect the firm's profits) in marketing environments varying in complexity. The main result of the experiment suggests that the value of CuPA reports depends on the complexity of the marketing setting. Only in a highly complex marketing setting do they enhance resource allocation decisions and resultant firm profitability. Conversely, in the simple marketing environment, decision makers can combine their traditional volume-based cost data with other available types of feedback to perform as well as under a more accurate CuPA report. These findings on complexity contrast with those of a prior study in a production context ( Gupta and King, 1997 ). It is argued that improvements in the current research design, in the form of regularly updated profitability reports and concerning accuracy, increase the relevance of CuPA reports in a complex marketing setting.     

中国外商直接投资的区位决定因素分析:城市数据

本文以全国210个地级以上城市为对象,分析了外商直接投资的区位决定因素。本文采用OLS和逐步回归分析方法以及2002年的横截面数据,在以往研究的基础上选择四项区位决定因素包括三种成本因素、三种市场因素、四种集聚因素和四种制度因素进行实证研究。结果表明,劳动力成本对各城市的外商直接投资的区位选择影响不明显,而市场规模、基础设施、教育和研究开发条件以及地方金融规模对外商直接投资的区位选择的影响具有显著性。本文的逐步回归分析结果还表明,就东部地区而言,能源条件和市场规模是较重要的区位决定因素;就中西部地区而言,市场规模、基础设施、教育和研究开发条件以及地方金融成为较重要的区位决定因素。     

产权观下我国企业会计目标构建问题研究

会计目标一直是西方会计界重点关注和研究的问题,近年来,我国会计理论界和实务界也对其投以越来越多的关注。本文试图从企业产权理论和制度变迁的角度,以利益相关者权益保护为主线研究会计目标,理清从受托责任观到决策有用观演进的必然性和合理性,并在分析英美、法德模式会计目标的差异后,结合当前我国会计准则国际趋同的背景,提出我国应确立以利益相关者权益保护为中心、以企业特征为导向、针对不同环境分别选择受托责任或决策有用为核心内容的会计目标构建思想。     

Statistical Decision Problems and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods

This paper considers parametric statistical decision problems conducted within a Bayesian nonparametric context. Our work was motivated by the realisation that typical parametric model selection procedures are essentially incoherent. We argue that one solution to this problem is to use a flexible enough model in the first place, a model that will not be checked no matter what data arrive. Ideally, one would use a nonparametric model to describe all the uncertainty about the density function generating the data. However, parametric models are the preferred choice for many statisticians, despite the incoherence involved in model checking, incoherence that is quite often ignored for pragmatic reasons. In this paper we show how coherent parametric inference can be carried out via decision theory and Bayesian nonparametrics. None of the ingredients discussed here are new, but our main point only becomes evident when one sees all priors—even parametric ones—as measures on sets of densities as opposed to measures on finite-dimensional parameter spaces.     

基于Agent的物流配送决策支持系统研究

物流配送是一个涉及多种影响因素的综合性复杂问题。本文探讨了基于Agent(智能体技术)的物流配送决策支持系统设计，在该系统中的智能体模型中引入学习机制，初步建立了一个具有专家系统特点、可以不断进化的物流配送决策支持系统。     

社会主义经济体制改革理论的新突破--读《中共中央关于完善社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》

《中共中央关于完善社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》在理论上有重大创新和发展。《决定》全面阐发了公有制的主体地位和国有经济的主导作用的新认识 ,提出了公有制实现形式多样化的新思路。《决定》系统提出了产权制度改革的新论断 ,指出产权是所有制的核心和主要内容。《决定》科学分析了必须按照“五个统筹”的要求提出改革目标 ,确立了以人为本 ,全面、协调、可持续的新发展观。《决定》精辟论述了深化农村改革 ,完善农村经济体制措施 ,提出了为农民创造更多就业机会的要求。《决定》为我国在经济社会新一轮发展提供了新的强大动力。     

组织信任及决策承诺与决策质量之关系探讨

通过关注组织信任在战略决策过程中的作用机制，研究组织成员间的信任与战略决策质量的关系，尤其是受信任影响较大的决策承诺在其中的中介作用。对组织信任、决策承诺和决策质量概念进行了系统的探索性分析和验证性分析，证实了组织信任对战略决策质量有显著的正相关关系，研究结论是组织信任对决策质量的影响主要是通过决策者的决策承诺来传递的。