面板数据分析中含两阶段自回归残差的单因素误差分量模型研究

在面板数据分析中残差自相关使得参数估计更加复杂。本文提出了含两阶段自回归残差的单因素误差分量模型,并推导了在这一模型中如何计算广义最小二乘估计量及其相关性质。     

Drivers of operational efficiency and its impact on market performance in the Indian Airline industry

India is considered to be one of the toughest aviation markets in the world, due to high fuel prices, overcapacity and intense price competition. It is therefore important to identify critical drivers of performance, which enable the airlines to survive and succeed in this emerging market with huge growth potential. In the current empirical study, we investigate the linkages between various performance drivers, operational efficiencies and market performance. An extensive data collection using primary and secondary sources enabled us to gather data on all the airlines operating in India, both private and public, for the period 2005–2012, on a variety of important parameters. We carried out a two-stage empirical analysis, which involved estimation of operational efficiencies during the first stage using Data Envelopment Analysis, and determination of performance drivers during the second stage using a two-way random effects GLS regression and also a Tobit model. Our findings suggest that while some of the structural and regulatory factors have an undesirable impact on airline performance, the low cost carriers in India have managed to achieve significant operational efficiencies. In addition, we find that, while cost efficiency is driven by a variety of factors, it is the technical efficiency which brings in better market performance through pricing power in the Indian airline industry.     

同期相关面板数据退势单位根检验的小样本性质

本文基于SUR回归将时间序列的两种单位根检验（ADF—GLS检验）推广到面板数据，得到了同期相关面板数据退势单位根检验，称为SUR—ADF—GLS检验。通过蒙特卡洛试验研究发现，SUR—ADF—GLS检验具有良好的小样本性质。并且，SUR—ADF—GLS检验关于面板数据的同期相关性结构存在着较强的“依存性”。     

多种单位根检验法的比较研究

本文基于单位根检验基本原理,比较了5种单位根检验的方法,说明在小样本情况下,为提高检验功效,应针对数据生成过程的特点联合多种检验法进行检验。如果检验变量为非平稳,则需要进行进一步的结构突变检验,本文主张选用结构突变点内生的Perron检验法与外生检验法相结合来判断变量的平稳性。     

Optimal versus orthogonal and equivalent-estimation design of blocked and split-plot experiments

This article provides an overview of the recent literature on the design of blocked and split-plot experiments with quantitative experimental variables. A detailed literature study introduces the ongoing debate between an optimal design approach to constructing blocked and split-plot designs and approaches where the equivalence of ordinary least squares and generalized least squares estimates are envisaged. Examples where the competing design strategies lead to totally different designs are given, as well as examples in which the optimal experimental designs are orthogonally blocked or equivalent-estimation split-plot designs.     

GLS detrending-based unit root tests in nonlinear STAR and SETAR models

We extend GLS detrending procedure to testing for unit roots against STAR and SETAR alternatives. Monte Carlo simulations and applications to DM/Yen real exchange rates demonstrate that GLS detrending-based nonlinear unit root tests are more powerful than OLS detrending-based counterparts.     

On the predictability of realized volatility using feasible GLS

This study deals with the out-of-sample predictability of realized volatility induced by implied volatility using FGLS. The original dataset was collected from Bloomberg and includes price and implied volatility indices from the US, Hong Kong, China, South Korea and India. Prices were then transformed into realized volatility indices. The relation between realized and implied volatility is important insofar as market expectations about future turbulence may affect the investor's behavior in advance. However, there are some features of the financial data which turn problematic the choice of the OLS estimator. These features include endogeneity and persistence of the predictor, and also conditional heteroskedasticity of the predicted innovations. Consequently, OLS becomes biased and inefficient. The FGLS estimator accounts for these characteristics and, therefore, performs better than OLS-based estimators, as indicated by many of our results.     

地方公共养老服务体系建设水平及其影响因素研究

以我国31个省区市2011—2016年的面板数据为基础，对其进行熵值法处理，并采用广义最小二乘法进行模型异方差和自相关修正，对地方公共养老服务体系建设水平进行研究，得出以下结论：一地土地成交价格越高、纳入城乡最低保障范围内人数越多、老年抚养比越高等，越不利于地方养老服务体系建设水平提升；中央专项拨款、福利彩票公益金提取越多，则越有利于地方政府对养老服务体系建设水平的提升。根据所得结论对地方公共养老服务体系的建设提出包括稳定地价、制定土地优惠政策以及进行前期建设补贴在内的相关建议。     

Powering economic growth and development in Africa: telecommunication operations

This study investigates the effect of telecommunication operations on economic growth and development in selected African countries. The analysis considers a panel of 46 African countries from 2000 to 2015. To measure economic growth, real gross domestic product serves as the proxy, while economic development is measured by the Human Development Index, and telecommunication operations by a composite index of telecommunication computed from mobile line, fixed/CDM line and Internet access penetration via principal component analysis. The physical capital stock is measured by gross fixed capital formation, level of employment by the employment to population ratio, human capital development by enrolment in secondary education for both sexes and technology transfer by net inflows of foreign direct investment in Africa. The empirical results suggest that telecommunication operations promote economic growth and development in Africa. These results imply that for every positive expansion in telecommunication operations and physical capital stock, aggregate output and standard of living will adjust positively in Africa. Thus, an appropriate policy to improve overall investment in Africa and most especially in the telecommunication sector since the spillover effect cut across other sectors and the general economic performance.     

A test of the Ohlson (1995) model: Empirical evidence from Japan

This paper investigates the validity of the Ohlson [Contemp. Account. Res. 11 (1995) 661] information dynamics (Linear Information Model: LIM) and attempts to improve the LIM. The difficulty concerning the empirical tests of the LIM lies in identifying ν_t, which denotes information other than abnormal earnings. Recent papers, such as those of Myers [Account. Rev. 74 (1999) 1], Hand and Landsman [The pricing of dividends in equity valuation. Working paper, University of North Carolina, 1999], and Barth et al. [Accruals, cash flows, and equity values. Working paper (January) (July), Stanford University, 1999], all try to specify ν_t by using various accounting information. Instead of tackling this difficult task, this paper focuses on serial correlation in the error terms caused by omitting the necessary variable ν_t from the regression equation. The results indicate that adjustment for serial correlation leads to an improvement of the LIM.