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1.
This paper provides a framework for the evaluation of scenario planning and other strategic decision making methods or techniques. If scenario planning is useful, we should be teaching it in schools and we as individuals should be using it to cope with the uncertainty inherent in modern life. A prerequisite to this is the need to identify why, where and how (in what way) scenario planning and other methods or techniques are useful. Here, I review evaluations of scenario planning. Taking a Brunswikian perspective, I highlight the issues that have failed to be addressed in this evaluation. I demonstrate that there are many ways in which scenario planning could be useful other than those that have appeared in previous discussions. These multiple routes are dependent upon the interaction between the individual organisation, the environment in which they are operating and the method being followed. 相似文献
2.
This paper uses the binary choice model to identify the factors that are significantly influencing the household purchase decisions of seafood products for home consumption in Auckland, New Zealand. It is found that ‘quality’ and ‘cooking easiness’ are the main product attributes that significantly influence households’ choices of seafood in Auckland. Also, the representative household has shown a strong preference for fresh and other alternative seafood products, including processed, smoked and canned, over frozen products. Retail outlets are found to be more attractive to the household purchasing seafood for home consumption. The New Zealand seafood industry may find this baseline study useful as a guide to developing future research structure on the domestic market. 相似文献
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Most decision making research in management accounting remains focused on cost information in a production context. Little is known on the relevance of customer profifitability analysis (CuPA) reports, which more accurately reflect revenue and marketing support variations acrosscustomers, for marketing decisions. This study uses an experimental design to examine the impact of such reports on resource allocation decisions (that affect the firm's profits) in marketing environments varying in complexity. The main result of the experiment suggests that the value of CuPA reports depends on the complexity of the marketing setting. Only in a highly complex marketing setting do they enhance resource allocation decisions and resultant firm profitability. Conversely, in the simple marketing environment, decision makers can combine their traditional volume-based cost data with other available types of feedback to perform as well as under a more accurate CuPA report. These findings on complexity contrast with those of a prior study in a production context ( Gupta and King, 1997 ). It is argued that improvements in the current research design, in the form of regularly updated profitability reports and concerning accuracy, increase the relevance of CuPA reports in a complex marketing setting. 相似文献
5.
Operational Research and the environment 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
The discipline of Operational Research (OR) is primarily concerned with improving the effectiveness and efficiency of decision processes. These processes take place everywhere in society: industry, banking, agriculture, government, politics. Frequent use of mathematical optimization models is typical of OR. Since the early '80s these models are increasingly packaged in a user-friendly way, as Decision Support Systems. In the following we will illustrate how OR can be used to describe and solve a number of environmental problems. 相似文献
6.
根据评价者需要,选取若干企业(或上市公司)作为被评价系统,建立一种企业经营业绩评价系统的多级多指标决策模型。该模型是在数理统计意义下将每个指标值进行标准规范化处理,用低级指标值通过信息熵自动赋权严生高一级指标值逐级递推,最后给出每个企业相对被评价系统的“理论分布得分”及“直观比较得分”。 相似文献
7.
本文以会计目标作为会计理论体系的逻辑起点,阐述变迁理论背景以及在不同市场主体中会计目标表现出的不同特征,揭示市场不断地发育成熟作为变迁的原动力。认为会计目标与经济发展相适应,是促进市场经济发展而导致会计目标变迁的规律。 相似文献
8.
论科学发展观与地方政府决策理念创新 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
科学发展观作为当代中国先进政治文化的最新成果,其实质是以人为本,注重经济、社会的全面、协调、可持续发展.科学发展观要求地方政府决策主体着眼全局推进梯度发展战略,重塑公共权威和政府诚信,在尊重客观规律和实事求是的基础上创新决策制度,树立服务与指导结合、法治与责任并重、民主与开放并行、追求高效与协调发展的决策理念,推进地方政府决策的科学化、民主化、法制化. 相似文献
9.
社区参与旅游发展具体操作分析 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
社区参与旅游发展具体包括旅游发展决策和旅游发展利益分配两个阶段。社区参与旅游发展利益分配主要从经济利益分配、培训和教育、就业、商机这几个方面来阐述。 相似文献
10.
Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs. 相似文献