Impact of state-dependent oil price on US stock returns using local projections

In this paper, we investigate the impact of oil prices on both aggregate and industry US real stock returns over the period 1973–2017. The empirical analysis contributes to the related literature introducing a state-dependent oil price (high and low) and the local projections approach. Our main finding is that, depending on the nature of the shock and industry, the negative effects of oil price shocks become exacerbated -and the positive effects get moderated- if oil prices are already high.     

Medium-term and Long-term Momentum and Contrarian Effects on China during 1994-2004

We examine momentum and contrarian effects in China＇s stock market during 1994-2004 and find that no medium momentum effects exist. Meanwhile, contrarian strategy works effectively over the horizon of 18-36 months. 1-month gap for avoiding bid-ask bounce and lead-lag effect make no considerable change to our empirical results. Transaction costs seem to have no significant impact on contrarian strategies＇ profit.     

On the test of the correction mechanism for mis-pricing between assets using a statistical yield spread model

This paper investigates the existence of a correction mechanism for mis-pricing between Japanese stock and bond. By this correction mechanism we mean that when deviations occur from the equilibrium levels of the expected return differentials between stock and bond — the risk premium differentials, the market will tend to correct the mis-pricing and bring the expected return differentials back to the equilibrium levels. We assume that the yield spread between the predicted earnings price ratio of stock and the yield to maturity of bond reflects the risk premium between stock and bond, and estimate the equilibrium risk premium differentials and mis-prices between stock and bond by modelling their behaviors with a statistical yield spread model (SYS). Empirical results strongly indicate the existence of the mis-pricing correction mechanism, suggesting the inefficiency of securities markets.     

新会计准则影响股东权益变化因素的分析

文章针对新会计准则的颁布对股东所有者权益的变化各影响因素进行分析，选取巨潮资讯网、上海证券交易所网站、深圳证券交易所网站等公开披露的国内A股上市公司2006年的年度报告数据，对影响所有者权益变化的15个因素进行了描述性统计、单因素敏感性分析和回归分析，得出在所有的影响因素当中，长期股东权益投资差额对股东权益的变化的影响是显著的。     

Long-Term Performance Following Rights Issues and Open Offers in the UK

Abstract:  This study finds evidence of significant long-term underperformance following rights issues made during 1986-95 in the UK. The findings are resilient to a number of methodological controls. In contrast, our results for a smaller sample of open offers made during 1991-95 show strong positive performance over a 5-year post-issue period, implying that firms making open offers had better growth prospects than firms making rights issues. During 1986-90, a period when open offers were rarely used, firms appeared to be making rights issues to exploit overvaluation. However, this was not evident for rights issues made during 1991-95, a period when open offers were more commonly used.     

流动性过剩、中长期贷款与银行稳定性

近年来,我国商业银行出现了流动性过剩现象,在这样的背景下,商业银行依靠提高中长期贷款来获得超额收益,但是中长期贷款增加可能导致固定资产投资过热.调整存款准备金率可以直接影响新增短期贷款的规模,但对新增中长期贷款规模不能产生明显的影响.同时,流动性过剩导致了中长期贷款规模的快速增长,可能降低银行稳定性.     

太行山文化视角下文化创意产业扶贫路径与长效机制研究

论文在太行山文化视角下,基于该地区特色物质文化、乡土村落文化、非遗文化、红色文化等资源,一方面从发挥特色资源优势、构建区域创新体系、升级传播平台等角度拓展太行山地区文化创意产业扶贫的创新路径,另一方面构建出以“宏观引导—中观支持—微观参与”为主要内容的太行山地区文化创意产业扶贫长效保障机制。从文化层面助力“防贫”,使乡村振兴取得进一步进展。     

“不期而寓”--青年城市配套综合体可行性调研报告

随着时代发展,独居、年轻化已成为租房人群的关键词。观念的升级和住房租赁政策的完善,使得90后的置业观悄然改变。经过市场调查,市面上还没有针对大学毕业生这一群体的长租公寓,多数是针对有一定经济能力的上班族。因此,大学毕业生的住房需求仅仅通过政府采取措施远远无法满足。论文从国家的宏观政策及市场微观细分因素中的人口因素、地理因素、行为因素等方面对“不期而寓”——青年城市配套综合体进行了分析,为项目的推进提供可靠的数据和科学性支持。     

Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES

We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). At the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. All three scenarios follow the qualitative scenario characteristics, as outlined in the original SRES scenarios. Two scenarios (B1 and B2) also follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised “high population growth” scenario, A2r world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a “delayed fertility transition” that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up, resulting in an initially stagnating and subsequently only very slow reduction in income disparities. The spatially explicit scenario interpretation proceeds via two steps. Through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods, world regional scenario results are first disaggregated to the level of 185 countries. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to a grid cell level, taking urbanization and regional (rural–urban) income disparities explicitly into account. A distinguishing feature of the spatially explicit scenario results reported here is that both methodologies, as well as numerical assumptions underlying the “downscaling” exercise, are scenario-dependent, leading to distinctly different spatial patterns of population and economic activities across the three scenarios examined.     

中国GDP最终消费的长期均衡与短期波动的协整分析

本文依据协整理论和误差修正模型 ,测定了我国GDP最终消费与国内生产总值、价格水平及利率之间的长期均衡关系和短期波动效应 ,并对当前消费需求疲软做出了新的解释