Government Deficit, Public Investment, and Public Capital in the Transition to an Aging Japan

This paper examines the effects of government deficits, public investment, and public capital on welfare in the transition to an aging Japan by applying a simulated general equilibrium growth model. One of the main results of this paper is that targeting only high economic growth would mislead us as to economic policies, and that a policy to reduce future government deficits is most preferable for almost all generations, even though a cut in future deficits must be followed by a decrease in public investment, thus a decrease in public capital in the future. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 462–491. Faculty of Economics, Shiga University, Japan; and Management School, Imperial College, United Kingdom. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: H55, H54, H62, C68, J10.     

Overlapping Generations or Infinitely-Lived Agents: Intergenerational Altruism and the Economics of Global Warming

Do we need an overlapping generations model for the economics of global warming? To answer this question, an infinitely-lived agent (ILA) approach and an overlapping generations (OLG) model are contrasted. ILA and OLG can be viewed as polar representations of intergenerational altruism. With ILA an immortal agent acts through his investment/savings decisions as trustee on the behalf of the future generations. With OLG, agents need not behave altruistic. They simply save during working years and dissave completely during retirement. Nevertheless, ILA and OLG must not differ in their implication for greenhouse policy. Greenhouse gas abatement is a straightforward alternative to physical capital formation and, even without altruism, each age cohort has an incentive to provide current abatement in order to reduce future damages attributable to climate change. Indeed, under reasonable assumptions and parameter values, our simulations reveal such an invariance result. Provided carbon taxes are the only policy tool and tax revenues are recycled through socially mandated rules, projections of economic growth, climate change and energy consumption are only insignificantly affected by the choice of approach.     

Overlapping Generations and Environmental Policy： An Introduction

A small but growing body of literature uses overlapping generations （OLG） models to study environmental policy for long-lived problems such as climate change. An OLG model, unlike the infinitely lived representative agent model, dis- tinguishes between impatience with respect to one＇s own future utility, and attitudes toward successors＇ utility. I discuss the problem of time inconsistency, the role of Markov perfection, and show that a class of OLG models can be studied using me- thods developed to analyze models of non-constant discounting. An example illu- strates the techniques and determines the conditions under which, in equilibrium, there is under-investment or over-investment in natural capital.     

Embracing invention similarity for the measurement of vertically overlapping claims

ABSTRACT

Clear and well-defined patent rights can incentivize innovation by granting monopoly rights to the inventor for a limited period of time in exchange for public disclosure of the invention. However, with cumulative innovation, when a product draws from intellectual property held across multiple firms (including fragmented intellectual property or patent thickets), contracting failures may lead to suboptimal economic outcomes. However, an alternative theory, developed by a variety of scholars, contends that patent thickets have a more ambiguous effect. Researchers have developed several measures to gauge the extent and impact of cumulative innovation and the various channels of patent thickets. This paper contends that mis-measurement may contribute to the incoherence and overall lack of consensus within the patent thickets literature. Specifically, the literature is missing a precise measure of vertically overlapping claims. We propose a new measure of vertically overlapping claims that incorporates invention similarity to more precisely identify inventive overlap. The measure defined in this paper will enable more accurate measurement, and allow for novel economic research on cumulative innovation, fragmentation in intellectual property, and patent thickets within and across all patent jurisdictions.     

Tail risk in emerging markets of Southeastern Europe

This article examines the left-tail behaviour of returns on stocks in Southeastern Europe (SEE). We apply conditional extreme value theory (EVT) approach on daily returns of six stock market indices from SEE between 2004 and 2013. Predictive performance of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) based on EVT is compared against several alternatives, such as historical simulation and analytical approach based on GARCH with a single conditional distribution. Model backtesting with daily returns shows that EVT-based models provide more reliable VaR and ES forecasts than the alternative models in all six markets. Unlike the alternatives, the EVT-based models cannot be rejected as VaR confidence level is increased. This emphasizes the importance of extreme events in SEE markets and indicates that the ability of a model to capture volatility clustering accurately is not sufficient for a correct assessment of risk in these markets.     

Habit Formation in an Overlapping Generations Model with Borrowing Constraints

We introduce habit‐formation in the three‐period OLG borrowing‐constrained framework of Constantinides et al. (2002) by allowing the utility of the middle‐aged (old) to depend on consumption when young (middle‐aged). This specification enables us to separate the effect of the two habit parameters (middle‐aged and old) since each representative age‐group can face different levels of habit persistence. The two‐habit setup underlines some important issues with regards to savings and security returns which do not always conform to the standard findings in the literature. In addition, the model produces equity premium consistent with US data for relatively small levels of risk aversion.     

Welfare effects of bubbles in an endogenous growth model

This paper examines welfare effects of asset bubbles in an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. In our model, a steady-state equilibrium with bubbles exists only if the presence of bubbles raises the welfare level of the initial generation. Bubbles can be beneficial to generations born at relatively early dates, whereas they reduce the welfare level of sufficiently distant future generations. Increasing the rate of supply of the useless asset improves the lifetime utilities of future generations.     

代际再分配与我国养老保险模式的选择

代际再分配是指收入在不同代之间进行的又一次分配,在代际交叠模型中,经济是由不同代的年轻人和老年人组成的。在竞争市场均衡的代际交叠模型中,现收现付制与完全基金制两种保险模式对资本存量以及不同人福利有着不同的影响。人口年龄结构的变化,将对养老保险中的代际再分配产生怎样的影响,是一个颇具新意而且具有现实意义的问题。     

基于市场需求理论的宁波对外贸易转型升级研究

对外贸易在宁波国民经济发展中发挥了极为重要的作用。要素禀赋理论和需求重叠理论仍然对国际贸易的发生和发展有着重要的推动作用,在未来的外贸发展之路,宁波要牢牢抓住本地要素禀赋的优势,积极推进产品结构、贸易主体、贸易方式、贸易市场等方面的多元化,适应国际市场消费需求的变化,提升贸易产业链,走转型升级之路。     

转型期地方政府重叠利益行为模式研究——以房地产调控为例

转型期中国地方政府行为模式较为复杂,可以用重叠利益行动结构进行解释.地方政府多样化的行为表现,源自于其行为的利益归属区间的不同.在房地产调控领域,由于地方政府主要是根据自己的利益需要和本地区具体情况,按照重叠利益结构原理,对调控措施进行了巧妙的选择,结果保证了地方政府利益最大化,但未实现公共利益最大化.在公众无实质性制衡权力的情况下,改变地方政府行为模式的主要推手是中央政府.