MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

From the margins: globalization with(out) home economics

Pies and peas, noughts and crosses, fish and chips, chicken and egg, teaching and learning, home economics and . . . globalization? In psychotherapy, this simple technique of providing a word and another automatically coming to mind is called free association and some of the internationally accepted pairings are noted above. Do we want ‘home economics’ and ‘globalization’ to have an automatic association? In this paper, I argue that home economics must make a shift from the margins of patriarchy by re‐thinking the ways in which the field is legitimized and positioned if it is to be a key player in taking on the challenges and dilemmas raised by globalization.     

科技英语中数量增减的译法

本文系统地归纳了在科技文献中常见的涉及到倍数增减的结构及其表达方式     

Memory recall errors in retrospective surveys: A reverse record check study

This paper reports on a study to compare self-reports during an interview with staff who attended a University health centre in Turkey, with the records of visits to the same health centre over the previous 12 months. Design of the study reflects the effects of importance of the event, duration since the event, frequency of the occurrence of the event, measurement scale of the event, and bounded and unbounded recalling. In order to assess the extent of recall error, responses to retrospective questions on health centre visits are compared with administrative records. Statistical models are proposed for short and long term human memory recall error effects on responses.     

事项法会计必然取代价值法会计

通过分析事项法与现行价值法的本质差异,揭示了价值法会计的局限性以及在知识经济条件下面临的挑战。根据知识经济时代社会经济环境和使用者信息需求的变化,论证了事项法会计必将取代价值法会计,领导知识经济时代会计的改革方向。     

World Oil Depletion Models: Price effects compared with strategic or technological interventions

World oil depletion, including natural gas liquids, was modelled in the past by many authors. Recently, Guseo and Dalla Valle have introduced and Guidolin has applied a new approach following perturbed life-cycle diffusion models. Here we examine joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM). Statistical analysis takes into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components. The main results confirm the statistical significance of historical 1970s shocks and highlight a strong long memory effect due to an increase in oil production after World War II. The estimated peak-date, 2007, and the 90% depletion time, 2019, are determined under an equilibrium intervention hypothesis.     

论邓小平新型党际关系思想的时代特征

邓小平新型党际关系思想是中国共产党在总结以往处理国家间政党关系的历史经验的基础上,抓住当 前时代发展的主题而提出的。坚持党际关系四原则,保障政治安全与推进经济发展并重,以搞好国内建设为基础履 行国际责任,是邓小平新型党际关系思想三个鲜明的时代特征。     

科普翻译对中国百年时代精神的构建

我国科普翻译的百年史表明,在不同历史时期,科普翻译确实对时代精神的构建发挥了顺应、推动、改进、引领、主导的作用.当今构建时代精神,仍然需要科普翻译来助力.为了更好地构建时代精神,人们需要充分发挥创造性,用更多样的翻译方法来译介各类体裁的科普文本,并通过多元的渠道将科技知识传播给大众.     

综放工作面动态分次加架技术实践

针对一些不规则布置的综放工作面,介绍了当工作面长度变长时,采取不同的布置及加架方式的优缺点。这对于一些储量较少,地质条件复杂的矿井具有很好的借鉴意义。     

Technological adoption and use after mass market displacement: The case of the LP record

This paper investigates the reasons why some technologies, defying general expectations and the established models of technological change, may not disappear from the market after having been displaced from their once-dominant status. Our point of departure is that the established models of technological change are not suitable to explain this as they predominantly focus on technological dominance, giving attention to the technologies that display highest performance levels and gain greatest market share. And yet, technological landscapes are rife with technological designs that do not fulfil these conditions. Using the LP record as an empirical case, we propose that the central mechanism at play in the continuing market presence of once-dominant technologies is the recasting of their technological features from the functional-utilitarian to the aesthetic realm, with an additional element concerning communal interaction among users. The findings that emerge from our quantitative textual analysis of over 200,000 posts on a prominent online LP-related discussion forum (between 2002 and 2010) also suggest that the post-dominance technology adopters and users appear to share many key characteristics with the earliest adopters of new technologies, rather than with late-stage adopters which precede them.