EMPIRICAL PERFORMANCE OF GARCH MODELS WITH HEAVY‐TAILED INNOVATIONS

We introduce a new type of heavy‐tailed distribution, the normal reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution (NRIG), to the GARCH and Glosten‐Jagannathan‐Runkle (1993) GARCH models, and compare its empirical performance with two other popular types of heavy‐tailed distribution, the Student's t distribution and the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG), using a variety of asset return series. Our results illustrate that there is no overwhelmingly dominant distribution in fitting the data under the GARCH framework, although the NRIG distribution performs slightly better than the other two types of distribution. For market indexes series, it is important to introduce both GJR‐terms and the NRIG distribution to improve the models’ performance, but it is ambiguous for individual stock prices series. Our results also show the GJR‐GARCH NRIG model has practical advantages in quantitative risk management. Finally, the convergence of numerical solutions in maximum‐likelihood estimation of GARCH and GJR‐GARCH models with the three types of heavy‐tailed distribution is investigated.     

Cost comparison of continued anticoagulation with rivaroxaban versus placebo based on the 1-year EINSTEIN-Extension trial efficacy and safety results

Aims: The EINSTEIN-Extension trial (EINSTEIN-EXT) found that continued treatment with rivaroxaban for an additional 6 or 12 months (vs placebo) after 6–12 months of initial anticoagulation significantly reduced the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) with a small non-significant increased risk of major bleeding (none fatal or in critical site). This study aimed to compare total healthcare cost between rivaroxaban and placebo, based on the EINSTEIN-EXT event rates.

Methods: Total healthcare cost was calculated as the sum of treatment and clinical event costs from a US managed care perspective. Treatment duration and event rates were obtained from the EINSTEIN-EXT study. Adjustment on treatment duration was made by assuming a 10% non-adherence rate. Drug costs were based on wholesale acquisition costs. Cost estimates for clinical events (i.e. recurrent deep vein thrombosis [DVT], recurrent pulmonary embolism, major bleeding, clinically relevant non-major bleeding) were determined from the literature. Results were examined over a ±20% range of each cost component and over 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of event rate differences in deterministic (one-way) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA).

Results: Total healthcare cost was $1,454 lower for rivaroxaban-treated (vs placebo-treated) patients in the base-case, with a lower clinical event cost fully offsetting drug cost. The cost savings of recurrent DVT alone (–$3,102) was greater than drug cost ($2,723). Total healthcare cost remained lower for rivaroxaban in the majority (73%) of PSA (cost difference [95% CI]?=?–$1,454 [–$2,396, $1,231]).

Limitations: This study was conducted over the 1-year observation period of the EINSTEIN-EXT trial, which limited “real-world” applicability and examination of long-term economic impact. Assumptions on drug and clinical event costs were US-based and, thus, not applicable to other healthcare systems.

Conclusions: Total healthcare costs were estimated to be lower for patients continuing rivaroxaban therapy compared to those receiving placebo in VTE patients who had completed 6–12 months of VTE treatment.     

The social process of internet appropriation: Living in a digitally advanced country benefits less well-educated Europeans

We generalize and extend the sequential model proposed by the resources and appropriation theory to explain the digital divide in the European Union plus the United Kingdom (EU27+UK). We measure the theoretical constructs of the model with data provided by the EU and test the theoretical predictions using a partial least squares structural equation model. We find support for the hypothesized relationships but find that the effects vary depending on the digital development level of countries. While education overall is the primary determinant of the social production of digital inequalities, a country's digital development level is crucial for less well-educated Europeans. These findings have theoretical and practical implications: (1) they call into question the homogeneity of the effect of causal relationships and the assumption that individuals differ only in terms of motivation, access, and digital skills, and (2) they indicate that socially disadvantaged Europeans benefit from living in more digitally developed countries.     

《技术制图》新旧标准对照

以对照方法介绍了《技术制图》与《机械制图》中三个基础标准的适用范围、采标情况及基本内容。     

中国农村城镇化的必要性与实现路径

农村城镇化是实现农业剩余劳动力转移的必然选择，是实现农村全面小康社会的前提。章论述了中国农村城镇化的必要性，提出了实现农村城镇化的途径。     

网上证券交易的国际比较和借鉴

网上证券交易是全球证券经纪业务发展的一大趋势，而我国在这方面尚处于初步发展阶段，文章主要阐述借鉴其他国家在网上证券交易的相关做法，结合我国现状提出对发展我国网上证券业务的建议。     

试论建立和完善农村合作金融管理体制

建立和完善农村合作金融管理体制是我国金融体制改革的重要组成部分。我国农村合作金融虽然有了很大发展 ,但农村合作金融管理体制还存在很多弊端 ,迫切需要建立和完善具有中国特色的农村合作金融管理体制。本文在充分分析问题和弊端的基础上 ,科学地提出了建立新体制的构想 ,对于加强农业的基础地位、促进农村经济发展有着十分重要的意义     

中外影视广告的故事性比较

中国人是很会讲故事的,但在影视广告中却没能讲出几个让人感动的故事,广告人的讲故事能力被限制在叫卖中了.中国广告中的故事,不是平淡就是生硬,过渡不圆滑,有些假.不像外国影视广告中的故事,很自然,很流畅,有顺理成章的逻辑关系.其原因,一是中国影视媒体上投放广告需要大量资金,所以影视广告被做得很短;二是广告人没有继承讲故事的传统,没有形成讲故事的素质.     

当前我国地区比较优势的若干思考

根据比较优势理论，客观地分析、论证各地区的比较优势，是国家制定区域经济发展、经济布局政策的基本依据。也是各地区制定正确的产业政策、发展战略，实现区域经济健康、协调发展的主要前提。     

中西方国家农产品流通比较

发达国家农产品流通主要是通过批发市场,多以公开拍卖的现代化销售方式进行;流通组织主体多元化,特别是农业专业合作社十分发达;政府的流通管理归口划一,行业协会发挥作用较大.同时,许多发达国家都把农产品的贮藏、保鲜、加工放在农业的首位,非常重视农产品加工及其深度利用技术,农产品质量检测体系健全.农产品流通支持政策也较多.相比之下,中国的农产品流通还有许多工作要做.