Data-based mechanistic modelling and forecasting globally averaged surface temperature

The main objective of this paper it to model the dynamic relationship between global averaged measures of Total Radiative Forcing (RTF) and surface temperature, measured by the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA), and then use this model to forecast the GTA. The analysis utilizes the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) approach to the modelling and forecasting where, in this application, the unobserved component model includes a novel hybrid Box-Jenkins stochastic model in which the relationship between RTF and GTA is based on a continuous time transfer function (differential equation) model. This model then provides the basis for short term, inter-annual to decadal, forecasting of the GTA, using a transfer function form of the Kalman Filter, which produces a good prediction of the ‘pause’ or ‘levelling’ in the temperature rise over the period 2000 to 2011. This derives in part from the effects of a quasi-periodic component that is modelled and forecast by a Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) relationship and is shown to be correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index.     

国际贸易发票货币的选择——兼论人民币国际化

一国货币作为国际贸易发票货币取决于货币汇率的波动性、该国在占据的出口市场份额以及该国出口产品的差异性程度。随着人民币汇率形成机制更加灵活和弹性化及在国际贸易中采用本币计价以回避汇率风险,人民币成为国际贸易发票货币有期可待。     

Self-enforcing international environmental agreements with a stock pollutant

In this paper the stability of an International Environmental Agreement (IEA) among N identical countries that emit a pollutant are studied using a two-stage game. In the first stage each country decides noncooperatively whether or not to join an IEA, and in the second stage signatories jointly against nonsignatories determine their emissions in a dynamic setting defined in continuous time. A numerical simulation shows that a bilateral coalition is the unique self-enforcing IEA independently of the gains coming from cooperation and the kind of strategies played by the agents (open-loop or feedback strategies). We have also studied the effects of a minimum participation clause finding that for this case a self-enforcing IEA just consists of the number of countries established in the clause.JEL Classification: C73, D62, Q28 Corresponding author : Santiago J. RubioThis paper is based on chapter four of Begoña Casinos Ph. Dissertation. Financial support from the Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, the Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología under grant BEC2000-1432 and Fundación BBVAis gratefully acknowledged. We also appreciate the helpful comments of three anonymous referees, whose suggestions improved the paper. Regarding any remaining inadequacies, the usual caveat applies.     

Users expectations and the need for differential beach management frameworks along the Costa Brava: Urban vs. natural protected beaches

Beaches are social–ecological systems where plainly physical, ecological, social and economic dimensions interact, providing several functions and services leading to improved human well-being. Although these systems can provide several protective, recreational and natural functions, only recreation has been traditionally prioritized by managers. This has led to the homogenization of beach management practices, which are poorly adapted to beach settings and beach users. While public participation was highly encouraged, decision-making has traditionally been done by a single stakeholder following a strict hierarchic order. In two antagonistic beaches (natural protected vs. urban) we assess and compare users’ expectations and perceptions that could suggest the necessity of a differential management. Behind an apparent homogeneity, significant differences were detected between these two antagonistic beaches. Although certain normal preferences were common in both beaches, natural attributes were the priority in the natural protected setting, as well as facilities in the urban one. However, the influence of traditional mass tourism model on users’ expectations was undeniable. Particular management frameworks for beaches with singular natural characteristics are necessary. A special emphasis on education and information is needed, as a cornerstone for a sustainable use of these social–ecological systems.     

An options pricing approach to ramping rate restrictions at hydro power plants

This paper investigates the impact of ramping rate restrictions imposed on hydro operations to protect aquatic ecosystems. The optimal ramping decision is specified as an optimal control problem which results in a Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation. Electricity prices are modelled as a regime switching stochastic process. The optimal control is determined by solving the HJB equation numerically using a fully implicit finite difference approach with semi-Lagrangian time stepping. The paper focuses on the effect of ramping restrictions on a hydro plant׳s value and optimal operations, and provides an analysis of which factors cause ramping restrictions to have a greater or lesser impact on profitability. It is shown that hydro plant value is negatively affected by ramping restrictions, but the extent of the impact depends on key parameters which determine the desirability of frequent changes in water release rates. Interestingly for the case considered, value is not sensitive to ramping restrictions over a large range of restrictions. The results point to the importance of accurately modelling electricity prices in gauging the trade offs involved in imposing restrictions on hydro operators which may hinder their ability to respond to volatile electricity prices and meet peak demands.     

Unfairness in consumer services: Outcomes of differential treatment of new and existing clients

In a consumption context, there is a growing interest in understanding unfair behaviour of firms towards customers. Our research focuses on unfairness perceptions driven by differential treatment, particularly through price discrimination, i.e. the practice of charging differential prices to different customers. Our purpose is to investigate the consequences of these practices for unfairness perceptions, satisfaction, trust and patronage, showing a dual perspective: the perceptions of new vs existing clients when they face the advantaged or disadvantaged conditions. A survey-based experimental design approach was used. We conclude that unfairness perception is stronger for existing than for new clients, prompting negative attitudinal and behavioural consequences when the former are exposed to disadvantaged conditions in relation to the latter. Our study aims to provide marketers with a perspective on the pitfalls related to differential treatment between present and prospective clients, with implications in terms of design and implementation of customer management strategies.     

一种特殊的码型对载波恢复环路性能影响的分析

本文从几个不同的角度对国际商务英语及其教学作一番思辨。作者就以下3个问题发表了自己的看法:(1)多角度地界定国际商务英语;(2)国际商务英语学习者群体的成份;(3)国际商务英语教学的主要特点和规律。     

Reexamination of attendee-based brand equity

The significance of brand concept has been increasingly recognized in the MICE industry due to its ability to create a compelling competitive edge. Complementing the major limitation of a study on attendee-based brand equity [Lee, J. S., & Back, K. J. (2008). Attendee-based brand equity. Tourism Management, 29(2), 331–344], this study reexamines attendee-based brand equity by additionally sampling regional CHRIE conferences (RCs) and comparing the data with I-CHRIE's annual conference (IC) in the context of our theoretical model. This research not only increases the theoretical validity of the previous model of attendee-based brand equity, but also explores brand equity as captured through the differential brand knowledge effect by comparing IC and RCs.     

Application of the Reporting Entity Concept in Australia

For decades, the reporting entity concept has been the foundation of differential reporting in Australia. Those entities classified as ‘reporting entities’ are, prima facie, required to produce full GAAP‐based financial reports while other (non‐reporting) entities are generally able to produce less complex and shorter ‘special purpose’ financial reports. In recent years, the application of the concept, as originally set out in the Statement of Accounting Concepts (SAC) 1 Definition of the Reporting Entity, has been criticized on several grounds—particularly, that it does not yield the reporting outcomes originally intended by regulators. Our analysis of 1,546 companies lodging financial statements with the corporate regulator in Australia (ASIC) shows the principles‐based criteria in SAC 1, designed to indicate the existence of a reporting entity, do not systematically explain its application by entities. Our findings are relevant for policy makers, researchers, and regulators concerned with how these choices might be more effectively regulated in future and whether this is best done through principles‐based or rules‐based approaches.     

寡头电信企业价格决策微分博弈模型及其分析

在随机需求环境下,电信企业的价格策略表现为一个随时变化的调整轨迹,将寡头电信企业之间的价格竞争博弈刻画为微分博弈模型,并对模型进行了数值模拟和仿真分析,结果表明:在随机需求下,寡头电信企业的价格策略存在唯一的鞍点均衡路径,否则很难实现均衡状态;虽然寡头电信企业的价格处在动态调整中,但市场份额会相对稳定维持在某一均衡状态下。