Disagreement over the emergence of private property rights: alternative meanings, alternative explanations

This paper is an exercise in the history of thought, which compares Austrian and neoclassical theories of the emergence of private property rights, and examines, in part, the extent to which Austrians can be said to offer a commonly-agreed upon explanation that parallels Carl Menger's exemplary story of the emergence of money. We address the sources of disagreement (and apparent conflict) among emergence theorists in both schools. We try to show that some of the disagreement hinges on an unclear meaning of the term “emergence,” which is resolvable, while other sources of disagreement are fundamental at the methodological level. JEL Code B25, E40, E53     

The implications,challenges and benefits of a complexity-orientated Futures Studies

Complexity science is increasingly cited as an essential component of a Futures Studies (FS) capable of assisting with the wide-ranging and complex societal problems of the 21st century. Yet, the exact implications of complexity science for FS remain somewhat opaque. This paper explicitly sets out the challenges for FS that arise from six complexity science concepts: (1) irreversibility of time (2) path dependence 3) sensitivity to initial conditions (4) emergence and systemness (5) attractor states (6) complex causation. The discussion highlights the implications of these challenges for FS tools such as horizon scanning and weak signals, and sets out the benefits of overcoming the challenges to create an explicitly complexity-orientated FS. The discussion concludes with a set of questions summarising the challenge for FS from complexity science with the aim of stimulating a discussion as to how they can be met. The concluding remarks make some initial suggestions in this regard.     

De Vetula: a Medieval Manuscript Containing Probability Calculations

De Vetula , a poem that contains probability calculations on the throw of three dice, was written in the mid-thirteenth century. The poem was widely circulated, read and quoted. There is strong evidence that some of the medieval readers clearly understood how the probability calculations were obtained. Based on the discussion given here, it is put forward that an elementary probability calculus was established and known in Europe from about the year 1250. A translation of the relevant section of the poem is given.     

Impeding insurgent attacks: The information management agenda

Recent confrontations in Iraq between coalition forces and insurgents have caused much havoc in the way of economic and political reforms. Insurgents use a wide range of tactics, from suicide bombings to kidnappings, to cause tension between the local factions and the Iraqi populace, and between the locals and the coalition forces. The strength of the insurgent strategy emerges from the nature of their attacks: highly erratic, yet potent. All-out-assault on these insurgents is impossible as they cloak themselves and exploit the advantages of guerrilla warfare tactics. In this paper, we will highlight the informational issues that the coalition forces must appreciate in order to curb and curtail these insurgent attacks. While we do not aim to propose any grand strategy to eradicate all insurgent attacks, we do believe that the true weapon that needs to used optimally (effectively and efficiently) against such attacks is information. Whether the insurgents or the coalition forces, the side that is more successful at managing and deploying information potently and with intent will ultimately prevail.     

Artificial worlds and economics,part I

In this and a companion paper (Lane 1993), I describe a class of models, called artificial worlds (AWs), that are designed to give insight into a process called emergent hierarchical organization (EHO). This paper introduces the ideas of EHO and AWs and discusses some of the interferential problems involved in trying to learn about EHO by constructing and studying the properties of AWs. It concludes by introducing two abstract AWs that address important general problems in EHO: the relation between structure and function, and the dynamics of evolutionary processes. The companion paper will discuss several AWs expressly designed to model particular economic phenomena.     

The Austrian roots of the economics of institutions

This paper presents an analysis of the way the Austrian theory of institutions evolved from Menger’s main works. It also tries to advance the idea that the economics of institutions, when it deals with the emergence and evolution of rules and norms from interacting individuals, is inspired by Menger’s work and more generally by the Austrian analysis of the emergence and evolution of institutions. Recent works in the economics of institutions build on this earlier Austrian work to make it more formalized and testable.

演化经济学的两种系统观

演化经济学在系统处理方法上呈现出两种不同的主张,一种是以复杂适应系统理论为导向的演化建模分析方法,而另一种则强调多层级本体论和涌现观,并对复杂系统建模持抵制态度,尽管在反对主流经济学微观还原论这一点上两者取得了一致,但建立在相似性理论基础上的复杂系统建模更适合对复杂性存在的描述,而强调比较的、历史的和阐释的多层级本体论和涌现观的系统分析方法则更接近经验事实。     

From scholarly idea to budgetary institution: the emergence of cost-benefit analysis

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is typically portrayed as a technique for promoting efficiency in government. We don’t deny that CBA can be used in this manner, but instead focus on a different property of CBA, namely, its evolution from scholarly musings into a framing institution within which budgetary processes operate. The evolution of CBA into institutional status, moreover, shows the value of bringing a polyarchical perspective to bear on fiscal organization, wherein budgetary outcomes emerge through structured interaction among participants. CBA is a product of interaction within a political ecology, as distinct from being the product of some person’s optimizing choice.

The economic analysis of social norms: A reappraisal of Hayek’s legacy

This paper is organized as follows: first, we show that the reference to the notion of group selection is coherent with the other parts of Hayek’s thought. Second, we develop the idea that recent works in terms of the emergence and evolution of social norms corroborate in part Hayek’s theses in this domain. Finally, we put to the fore some drawbacks in Hayek’s approach and propose means to solve them.

Toward a simulated replica of futures: Classification and possible trajectories of simulation in futures studies

Simulation is likely to become a prominent method of theory development. Futures studies have used simulation in different ways such as evaluating scenarios. Nonetheless, the central attributes of computer simulation such as reductionism-based abstraction, determinism and elimination of stakeholders are the main barriers of successful implementation of simulation in FS. In this paper, we would paint the plausible evolutionary panorama of futures of simulation in futures studies after looking at the role of simulation in FS so far. The possible mechanisms and partnerships required to be applied to grapple the above-mentioned difficulties will be enumerated and investigated. These, in three categories, comprise firstly, human-machine interactions such as quasi-game simulations, and scenario visualization, secondly, large-network simulations including crowd sourcing, and thirdly, simulation platforms for replication of emergence. Ergo, crafting a classification of simulation in futures studies and the possible developments will be the main contribution of this paper. A novel double diamond classification will be presented as well which reflects the past and plausible futures of simulation in futures studies.