禽流感危机下肉鸡产业市场状态分析*——基于互联网大数据和MS-VAR模型

[目的]为了有效应对禽流感冲击、维持肉鸡产业稳定健康发展。[方法]基于互联网大数据构建了禽流感舆情指数,选取2012年1月至2017年3月周度数据,通过MS-VAR模型分析了禽流感危机下肉鸡市场状态的转换特征以及不同市场状态下产业链价格传导关系。[结果]2012年以来可将肉鸡产业市场状态划分为危机状态和正常状态,肉鸡产业市场在两个市场状态下转换频繁;肉鸡产业危机市场状态和正常市场状态平均持续期分别为4.65周和9.05周;肉鸡市场在区制转移概率上存在明显的非对称特征;肉雏鸡、活鸡和白条鸡价格之间在危机状态下相关性小于正常市场状态下相关性;不同市场状态下肉鸡产业链价格传导存在差异;肉鸡产业市场在危机状态下不稳定程度明显增加。[结论]提出了加大对禽流感疫情的监测以及疫情处理能力,密切关注公众禽流感舆情动态变动情况,做好舆情引导,加强禽流感疫情科学知识的宣传,增强公众对禽流感的认知等对策建议。     

The Effect of Media Coverage on the Pricing of Seasoned Equity Offerings

This paper examines the role of media coverage and investor attention on the outcomes of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). I use an archive of Thomson Reuters news articles to proxy for firm visibility and investor attention. I find that the volumes of news articles prior to the offerings are positively associated with the offer price discounts of SEOs. Furthermore, the volumes of news articles are negatively associated with the cumulative abnormal returns three days around the SEOs. I conclude that the costs of equity increase with media coverage prior to SEOs. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that media coverage affects investors' information processing in SEOs. Copyright © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Media-Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey-based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media-based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co-movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross-correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey-based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the media-based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment-based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa.     

Initial Margin Requirements, Volatility, and the Individual Investor: Insights from Japan

Initial margin requirements represent: (1) a cost impediment to the wealth constrained investor and (2) a potential way of mitigating excessive volatility. However, prior empirical research finds that margins are not an effective tool in reducing volatility. We consider the possibility that margins primarily affect certain stocks and investors. Specifically, we test whether margins affect individuals who, as a group, we believe to be the investors most affected when margin requirements change. Our initial empirical tests, however, do not support this contention.     

机构投资者与公司治理

随着机构投资者的发展壮大,人们越来越关注其对公司治理方面的作用。由于机构投资者巨大的股票持有量,他们存在参与公司治理的愿望。但因为经济往来关系、法律法规规定、信息处理障碍导致机构投资者并不能有效地参与公司治理。     

Terrorism activities and long-term annual management forecasts

We study the effects of terrorist attacks on firms’ long-term annual management earnings forecasts bias. We find that the managers of firms located closer to the epicenters of attacks are more likely to issue optimistic long-term annual earnings forecasts relative to the managers of a control group of unaffected firms. The exposure effect is stronger for more severe terrorist events, and firms with more uncertain fundamentals and less geographic diversification. In addition, we document that managers’ forecast optimism intensifies for firms with stronger negative stock market reaction to the terrorist event, for CEOs with higher ability and for companies that are more likely to issue equity or engage in acquisitions following the terrorist event. Overall, our results are consistent with the idea that long-term annual earnings forecasts are used by managers to counterbalance the short-term pessimistic response to terrorist attacks.     

大股东利益输送与投资者保护研究述评

在存在着控股股东的情况下,利益输送这种行为通常是对中小股东利益的侵犯,会对资本市场产生很大的影响,所以投资者保护显得很重要。本文综述了国内外大股东对上市公司的利益输送行为和投资者保护方面的研究,并结合我国资本市场的实际进行了分析。     

论国有银行引入外国战略投资者及相关争议

国有商业银行在股份制改造中是否需要引入外国战略投资者,国有商业银行资产是否被贱卖、是否会影响国家金融安全、国有商业银行能否真正学到外国战略投资者的先进技术与管理经验已成为当前中国金融界争议最大的热点问题。本文旨在对国有银行引入战略投资者的必要性、操作情况以及由此引发的相关争议进行分析。     

投资者关系管理、现金流权与公司价值——基于中国家族上市公司的实证研究

本文以2005年中国家族上市公司为样本,研究了金字塔结构控制下投资者关系管理的嵌入效应,尤其是在现金流权和控制权分离的股权结构中,投资者关系管理对现金流权公司价值效应的调节机理。研究发现:我国家族上市公司的现金流权与控制权严重分离,现金流权比例与公司价值显著负相关;投资者关系管理作为上市公司的一项自主性治理机制,与公司价值显著正相关;在投资者关系管理水平较高的家族上市公司中,作为内部人的控股股东的现金流权比例对公司价值的侵占效应会降低。     

我国股改中权证的价格泡沫及影响因素

本文针对我国股改中的百慕大权证提出了新的“模拟树-市场情绪”定价模型。该模型的实证研究结果表明中国权证市场价格存在严重高估;加入市场情绪指标后,通过建立多元回归模型得到了对于实际价格的显著的拟合结果,有力地解释了超出权证理论价格的实际价格所包含的情绪因素。本文最后对权证价格高估的原因及权证未来的走势进行了分析。