Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

Did taxes,decrees or credibility drive money? Early nineteenth century Finland from a chartalist perspective

Chartalist theories assume the government determines the currency used by the public. Finland’s experience following the Russo-Swedish war in 1808–1809 would seem to contradict the chartalist view. Having become a Grand Duchy under Russia, the Finnish Government sought to replace Swedish riksdalers in circulation with roubles. However, due to a resilient trade surplus with Sweden and the resulting flood of Swedish money into Finland, bans on the riksdaler were largely ineffective. Taxation proved a particularly clumsy tool for leveraging the switch to roubles. Taxpayers almost forced the government to accept payments in a foreign currency. Even the government had to use Swedish money. Issuing roubles was of limited use. As a result, the rouble failed to establish itself as Finland’s main currency until the introduction of a silver standard in 1840–1842.     

深基坑施工中的喷锚支护设计

喷锚支护是近２０年来发展起来的一种岩土体加固技术。７０年代成功地应用于边坡及挡土墙的加固，近几年开始用于深基坑边坡支护。本文在分析喷锚支护加固机理的基础上，通过一工程实例，说明喷锚支护技术用于深基坑开挖支护是安全可靠的。与传统支护结构相比，具有工期短，造价更合理的特点。     

Post-euro EU and US interest rates and foreign exchange rates: Are they in harmony or in disarray?

This paper focuses on: (1) how a select set of financial and economic factors could set the path for interest rates and foreign exchange rates, and (2) whether the resultant realized interest and exchange rates would be in harmony or in disarray. Using post-euro data for the EU and the US, an array of monetary rules is examined. In particular, the paper investigates whether the original and the extended Taylor rules provide an explanation of the dynamics of the EU monetary system since the inception of the euro. Our findings indicate that the EU and the US monetary responses are not the same and that exchange rates play a significant role.     

高强钢筋与高强混凝土的匹配问题

介绍了钢筋混凝土匹配问题研究的重要性,基于对钢筋混凝土结构发展的简述,对钢筋与混凝土的匹配问题进行了初步探讨。通过对普通钢筋与普通混凝土、普通钢筋与高强混凝土、高强钢筋与普通混凝土的粘结锚固性能分析,介绍了钢筋与混凝土之间的粘结匹配关系,对高强度钢筋与高强度混凝土而言,不存在两者不匹配的问题。     

我国央行控制货币供给能力的分析

本文首先从货币供给过程中的基础货币和货币乘数这两个环节入手,从理论上分析了我国央行对货币供给的控制能力.同时我国正处于社会主义市场经济的发展和转轨阶段,市场经济体制还很不完善,这些特殊国情使得我国的货币供给量更加难以控制.而且在当今金融创新、金融放松管制和全球金融市场一体化的背景之下,各个层次的货币供应量之间的界限更加不易确定,基础货币的扩张系数也失去了以往的稳定性,这又进一步强化了我国货币供给的内生性.通过对上述复杂因素的综合分析,探讨了我国央行对货币供给不可控性的深层次原因.     

货币中性非中性：理论述评

自17世纪以来，人类关于货币性质问题的争论已有近400年的历史。就认识的演进而言，大概经历了“货币中性论”、“货币非中性论”、“货币中性论”和“货币非中性论”杂然并陈三个阶段。事实上，“货币非中性论”更接近真理，正是“货币非中性论”构成了货币政策有效性的理论前提之一，为中央银行金融宏观调控提供了理论基础。     

关于中国货币政策有效性问题的探讨

开放经济对货币政策运行环境、传导机制、调控手段和目标都产生了重要的影响,使得保持货币政策的有效性变得更加复杂.主要表现为:外部均衡在货币政策中的地位显著提高;利率政策和汇率政策相互影响;货币供给的内生性增强;国际经济渠道在货币政策传导机制中的重要性上升;部分货币政策工具的调节力度有所下降.随着我国对外开放进程的加快,要提高货币政策的有效性,必须加快汇率制度改革,建立市场化的汇率机制;把我国的货币政策中介目标逐渐由货币供给量变为市场利率;加快利率市场化改革;注重利率政策和汇率政策的协调.