资本外逃的经济效应与应对政策选择研究

资本外逃是一个复杂的经济问题,是由多种原因造成的,并会给一国经济发展带来不可估量的风险和损失。基于此,论文梳理了资本外逃的研究现状,提出了资本外逃所产生的经济效应,在此基础上,提出了资本外逃的政策选择,为一国在治理资本外逃时提供了政策选择和借鉴。     

网络教育浅谈

本通过对我国教育现状的分析和对网络教育特点的阐析，提出网络教育对现行教育体制的挑战，对我国高等教育由精英教育转向全民教育的深远影响，以及存在的差距和未来发展趋势。     

商业银行发展汽车金融业务的策略分析

当前,汽车市场出现井喷式增长,各商业银行相继推出新的汽车金融业务.为应对外来汽车金融公司的同业竞争,避免再次陷入“车贷信用危机“,商业银行应积极借鉴国外的业务发展经验,针对自身业务发展障碍,制定合理的策略,审慎发展.     

跨国公司对我国汽车合资企业控制分析

跨国汽车公司以国际直接投资(FDI)方式建立合资企业是我国汽车产业利用外资的主要形式.在实际运行中,股权比例的安排并不等于实际控制权的分配,合资企业对合资双方相关资源依赖性的强弱决定了合资双方的实际控制权.跨国汽车公司借助技术垄断优势,通过双方合资时的约定或日后实际运作中的设计安排,以非股权约束的方式来实现对合资企业的实际控制.     

Technology‐push,market‐demand and the missing safety‐pull: a case study of American Airlines Flight 587

Through a critical case study of the crash of American Airlines Flight 587, this paper draws upon ‘the Social Shaping of Technology’ (SST) approach to offer a reconceptualisation of the technology‐push and market‐demand model for High‐Reliably Organisations (HROs), providing support for a third factor, called here a ‘safety‐pull’. A safety‐pull is defined as organisationally supported reflexivity in which technology innovators and frontline operators collaborate to consider the potential implications of adopting new technologies in HROs and the complex ways this change may impact human operators' work performance, often in risky and unanticipated ways. In contrast to accidents occurring solely as the result of individual operator error, analysing the safety‐pull provides a way to tease out the wide range of factors that can contribute to HRO failures and offers a new SST perspective through which to examine high‐risk operations.     

STOCK‐BOND CO‐MOVEMENTS AND FLIGHT‐TO‐QUALITY IN G7 COUNTRIES: A TIME‐FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

This paper examines co‐movement between stock returns and changes in 10‐year government bond yields as well as flight‐to‐quality behaviour in G7 countries. We conduct the wavelet squared coherence analysis to explore the dynamics in both time and frequency domain. Our results provide evidence of positive co‐movements, which vary over time and across investment horizon. The higher co‐movement is found to be more concentrated in the lower frequency bands. We further analyse the dynamic nature of the scale‐dependent wavelet correlations and find that the correlations are highly volatile and significantly increase across different time scales during the episodes of equity market turbulence. The increase in correlations reflects flights from stocks to safer bond investments as a result of dramatic changes in investor sentiment and risk aversion at times of market stress.     

Assessing strategic flight schedules at an airport using machine learning-based flight delay and cancellation predictions

To mitigate air traffic demand-capacity imbalances, large European airports implement strategic flight schedules, where flights are assigned arrival/departure slots several months prior to execution. We propose a generic assessment of such strategic schedules using predictions about arrival/departure flight delays and cancellations. We demonstrate our approach for strategic flight schedules in the period 2013–2018 at London Heathrow Airport. Together with the development of dedicated strategic flight schedule optimization models, our proposed approach supports an integrated strategic flight schedule assessment, where schedules are evaluated with respect to flight delays and cancellations.     

Consumption,asset wealth,equity premium,term spread,and flight to quality

We link transitory deviations of consumption from its equilibrium relationship with aggregate wealth and labor income to equity returns on the one hand, and to two characteristics of bond investors—the premium demanded to hold long‐term assets, and “flight to quality” behavior—on the other hand. Using a panel of 10 euro area countries over the period 1984Q1–2017Q4, we show that a rise in the consumption–wealth ratio predicts both higher equity returns and the future term spread, while a fall in the consumption–wealth ratio explains a large fraction of the rise in the spread between the “risky” and the “safe‐haven” bond.     

From Financial Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela

Recent work suggests a connection between domestic debt and external default. We examine potential linkages for Venezuela, where the evidence reveals a nexus among domestic debt, financial repression, and external vulnerability. The financial repression tax (as a share of GDP) is similar to OECD economies, in spite of higher debt ratios in the latter. The financial repression “tax rate” is higher in years of exchange controls and legislated interest rate ceilings. We document a link between domestic disequilibrium and a weakening of the net foreign asset position via private capital flight. We suggest these findings are not unique to Venezuela.     

Modelling airline flight cancellation decisions

In order to predict airline responses to Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), and reveal the underlying preference structures that shape these responses, we study US domestic airlines’ cancellation decisions in response to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s TMIs, in particular, to Ground Delay Programs (GDPs). By observing the actual flight-cancellation choices made by airline dispatchers, the airlines’ cancellation utility functions can be inferred through the use of binary choice models. The model captures how delays to a given flight and potential delay savings to other flights affect flight cancellation decisions. We also find larger, fuller, less frequent, shorter-distance, and spoke-bound flights are less likely to be cancelled, and that there is inter-airline variation in flight cancellation behaviour.