INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT: A DRIFT‐SWITCHING REFLECTED JUMP‐DIFFUSION MODEL

We study the cost of shocks, that is, jump risk, with respect to reserve management when the reserve process is formulated as a drift‐switching jump diffusion with a reflecting barrier at 0. Inspired by the Brownian drift switching model, our model results in a more realistic dynamic behavior of international reserves than the buffer stock model. The new model can capture both the jump behavior in reserve dynamics and the leptokurtic feature of the increment distribution which has a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than the normal distribution. Through the selection of an initial distribution that reflects certain steady state behaviors, the reserve process becomes a regenerative process. This selection enables us to derive a closed‐form expression for the total expected discounted cost of managing reserves, thus helping us to numerically find management strategies that minimize costs. The numerical results show that shocks at the reserve level have a significant effect on reserve management strategies and that model misspecification can result in nonnegligible additional costs.     

我国物流业转型升级研究综述

中国经济已经到了只有转型升级才能持续健康发展的关键阶段,产业转型升级在国家政策文件和研究文献中出现的词频较高。文章以我国物流业为研究对象,从现有涉及到物流业转型升级方面的文献挖掘有效信息,梳理我国物流业转型升级研究的历史脉络,从供应链与价值链、产业集群、现代科学技术应用和产业联动四个视角对现有的物流业转型升级文献进行了总结和归纳,并从物流业转型升级的动力研究、阶段性划分研究和演进规律研究三个方面指出了现有文献的研究不足和以后可能的研究方向。其中,供应链与价值链视角侧重于物流企业的纵向角度,产业集群视角侧重于物流企业的横向角度。文章对于物流企业战略设计、政府政策的制定和理论研究具有一定的参考作用。     

上市公司非公允关联交易治理研究

非公允关联交易在我国上市公司中普遍存在,并对上市公司的业绩产生着重大影响。本文在分析上市公司非公允关联交易产生原因的基础上,从完善立法、首发审核、治理结构、信息披露、定价方法、独立审计等方面探讨了非公允关联交易的治理对策。     

基于高校教师职业特点的激励机制探析

在对高校教师激励机制现状分析之后,针对高校教师的职业特点,提出了高校教师激励机制模式:薪酬激励、社会保障计划、参与激励、竞争激励、组织文化激励、工作激励。     

论青少年犯罪动向及对策

近几年,青少年犯罪案件呈突发性、偶发性,犯罪年龄降低,由单独型向团伙型发展的特点.其原因有家庭因素、学校因素、社会因素.预防和惩治青少年犯罪,需要全社会广泛参与,综合治理.     

格莱明银行模式:基于关联博弈的分析

从关联博弈角度对格莱明银行模式进行了分析,认为格莱明银行小组贷款模式实现了贷款博弈与社会资本博弈的紧密结合,正是这种紧密关联博弈克服了成员贷款中的 "搭便车"行为.由于重复博弈的存在,社会资本成为一种可置信的威胁,保证了贷款协议的执行,成功克服了合约中产生的代理问题.格莱明银行模式对我国小额信贷激励机制的建立具有重要的参考价值.     

邓小平发展观的基本特征

邓小平发展观是邓小平理论的核心内容之一.邓小平发展现,体现了视野的全球性、内涵的丰富性、体系的创新性、思维的辩证性、取向的人民性等基本特征.邓小平发展观是与时代和国情相适应的社会主义发展观,是科学发展观确立的思想基础.     

蜜月游市场特征的相关与回归分析——针对北京常住居民蜜月游市场

在我国,蜜月游市场发展迅猛,潜力巨大,收益率颇高.特别值得注意的是,我们调研发现:高收入者与非高收入者共享蜜月游这一高端旅游产品.为此我们进行了相关的定量分析,以进一步研究其发展脉络,揭示其变动趋势,为政府主管部门及相关旅游企业提供决策依据.     

我国疫苗供应链浅析

在分析疫苗物流特性的基础上,总结了我国疫苗供应链存在的问题,指出其主要原因是:利益分配不合理、供应层次过多、供应垄断、监管机制不合理,并提出了增加财政投入、分离运营与监管、改变调整供应链结构、加强信息化监管等措施。     

Memory recall errors in retrospective surveys: A reverse record check study

This paper reports on a study to compare self-reports during an interview with staff who attended a University health centre in Turkey, with the records of visits to the same health centre over the previous 12 months. Design of the study reflects the effects of importance of the event, duration since the event, frequency of the occurrence of the event, measurement scale of the event, and bounded and unbounded recalling. In order to assess the extent of recall error, responses to retrospective questions on health centre visits are compared with administrative records. Statistical models are proposed for short and long term human memory recall error effects on responses.