浅谈假日经济对中国经济的长期拉动效应

假日经济已成为国民经济的重要组成部分,并在国民经济中发挥着日益重要的作用。但在假日经济的发展过程中,也出现了一系列的负面效应,影响了假日经济的持续发展。文章就如何发挥假日经济的长期拉动效应,提出了相应的对策。     

景区拓荒群体的旅游特征——以福建邵武天成岩为例

邵武市天成岩是一处原始旅游地,已有一些旅游者自发而来。这些拓荒群体以中青年为主,他们多数经人介绍获得信息,以猎奇心态对景区观光漂流体验活动感兴趣,他们希望景区保持原样,不要太多人为干扰。这些拓荒群体的旅游特征对原始旅游地开发具有一定的指导意义。     

西藏旅游人力资源需求内因分析

西藏旅游企业从业人员规模还十分弱小,特别是旅游企业中导游队伍有待开发.而随着社会经济的发展以及结构的调整,旅游就业总量将不断增长,就业结构也会趋于合理;同时,西藏旅游开发战略模式决定了其从业人员的专业性和多样性,西藏4A级旅游区(点)的发展及扩增也将扩大就业人群.     

基于旅游者和日常访问者人群行为的城市型景区“共处”空间研究

针对城市型景区内旅游者和日常访问者相互影响的现象，提出“共处”空间概念，从“空间-行为”关系视角总结“共处”空间的时空特性，形成“共处”空间判别依据。基于计算机视觉技术，通过问卷调查，将人群行为划分为互不干扰、围观及参与、干扰及冲突3类，从空间优化与管理角度对列入公园年票体系中的城市型景区提出建议，梳理2类人群关系，提高游憩体验质量。     

用反木桶定律探析邮政物流的利益点

从管理学木桶定律的角度,分析了邮政物流发展所具有的优势,探讨了邮政体制改革后邮政物流发展的利益点。     

Two-settlement Systems for Electricity Markets under Network Uncertainty and Market Power

We analyze welfare and distributional properties of a two-settlement system consisting of a spot market over a two-node network and a single energy forward contract. We formulate and analyze several models which simulate joint dispatch of energy and transmission resources coordinated by a system operator. The spot market is subject to network uncertainty, which we model as a random capacity derating of an important transmission line. Using a duopoly model, we show that even for small probabilities of congestion (derating), forward trading may be substantially reduced, and the market power mitigating effect of forward markets (as shown in Allaz and Vila 1993) may be nullified to a great extent. There is a spot transmission charge reflecting transportation costs from location of generation to a designated hub whose price is the underlying for the forward contract. This alleviates some of the incentive problems associated with the forward market in which spot-market trading is residual. We find that the reduction in forward trading is due to the segregation of the markets in the constrained state, and the absence of natural incentives for generators to commit to more aggressive behavior in the spot market (the strategic substitutes effect). In our analysis, we find that the standard assumption of no-arbitrage across forward and spot markets leads to very little contract coverage, even for the case with no congestion. We present an alternative view of the market where limited intertemporal arbitrage enables temporal price discrimination by competing duopolists. In this framework, we assume that all of the demand shows up in the forward market (or that the market is cleared against an accurate forecast of the demand), and the forward price is determined using a market clearing condition.     

景区门票价格偏高的一个博弈论解释

指出景区产品是差别垄断产品，通过引入博弈论的思想，论证差别垄断这一特性可能使得景区自动趋向完全垄断价格，造成社会福利损失。这一模型可以解释我国门票价格偏高以及部分景点还在酝酿提价的现象。     

我国景区经营权转让的研究综述

我国景区经营权的转让是近年来旅游学界研究的热点问题之一。在回顾国内研究进展的基础上，对我国景区经营权转让研究的主要内容作了霞点而详尽的介绍．并就我国目前研究中存在的问题提出了一些看法。     

On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks

Daily and weekly seasonalities are always taken into account in day-ahead electricity price forecasting, but the long-term seasonal component has long been believed to add unnecessary complexity, and hence, most studies have ignored it. The recent introduction of the Seasonal Component AutoRegressive (SCAR) modeling framework has changed this viewpoint. However, this framework is based on linear models estimated using ordinary least squares. This paper shows that considering non-linear autoregressive (NARX) neural network-type models with the same inputs as the corresponding SCAR-type models can lead to yet better performances. While individual Seasonal Component Artificial Neural Network (SCANN) models are generally worse than the corresponding SCAR-type structures, we provide empirical evidence that committee machines of SCANN networks can outperform the latter significantly.     

城市景区大跨负埋深隧道半盖半挖施工应用

本文根据城市景区大跨负埋深隧道施工特点,介绍了处于山高林密间飞地的负埋深露头段隧道,利用已开挖隧道做通道强行出洞、做初期支护保护壳、边盖边挖、二次进洞开挖、预留投料孔施工护拱的绿色环保施工方法,创造性的解决了地处景区、林区露头隧道施工的难题,取得了较好的经济、社会效益,加快了施工进度。