浅谈所有权保留

在现代商品交易活动中，赊销、分期付款已成为非常普遍的交易方式，在这种交易方式中如何保护出卖人利益成为合同法理论和实践中的重要课题。本通过对合同法第134条关于所有权保留制度的阐述，论述了所有权保留的含义、客体、登记及当事人权利义务等内容，希对买卖合同实务有积极的指导意义。     

The politics of anticipation: On knowing and governing environmental futures

In this article we describe how the historical emergence and rise of future studies, since the founding issue of Futures in 1968, has been intricately connected to the emergence and development of environmental anticipation as discourse and practice. We trace a dialectical and inter-twined relationship between technologies of environmental anticipation and forecasting, and technologies of anti-environmentalist anticipation and counter-intervention, one which we argue shapes not only the contemporary politics of anticipation, but in a very material sense, the future conditions of biological and social life on Earth. In so doing we want to address the possible contributions that the field of futures studies can make to reimagining collective agency and ways of being on Earth, whilst reflecting critically upon its genealogical relations to the political reason and strategic horizons of powerful fossil fuel interests, from the crisis of the 1970s to the present. The article also offers a more in-depth contextualization to the other articles in this special issue of Futures on “The Politics of Environmental Anticipation”. The aim is to bring to the fore the role that social scientists play in environmental anticipation − i.e. drawing attention to the fact that the future could always have been otherwise.     

Emptying the future: On the environmental politics of anticipation

Anticipation may be seen as structured by images and representations, an approach that has informed recent work in science and technology studies on the sociology of expectations. But anticipation, as a capacity or characteristic, is not solely manifested in the form of representations, even where such representations of the ‘not yet’ are performative in nature. It also comprises material capacities, technological, biophysical and affective in nature. The politics of anticipation is shaped by how these symbolic and material capacities, and the forms of agency they make possible, are distributed. As anticipation is an environmentally distributed capacity, it is suggested that the politics of anticipation is also an environmental politics. A conceptual framework for analysing anticipation as comprised of environmental capabilities is introduced, and fleshed out using a case study of energy infrastructure planning from the UK. Key elements of this framework include the concepts of anticipatory assemblages and future horizons or ‘styles’ of anticipation. Working through the case study as an empirical example of a conflict concerning the politics of anticipation and of ‘environments’, it is demonstrated how the relationships between styles of anticipation are materially constitutive of such conflicts.     

2008全球金融市场状况及预期

金融创新在全球经济一体化的背景下把全球金融联系在了一起是美国金融危机升级为全球金融危机的重要原因,这次金融危机给各国经济和金融市场造成了巨大损失,其负面影响在短时间内不会消除,并会不断向实体经济蔓延.由于当今全球经济一体化,中国不会成为金融危机中的安全岛,一系列的经济发展问题将会受到影响.     

人民币升值、外币资产增长与货币供给

本文以汇率的资产组合决定论为基础,探讨了我国央行干预外汇市场对本币供给的影响机制.近年来,人民币产生升值预期,我国外币资产单边增长,央行通过干预外汇市场投放本币的方式,既维护了人民币汇率稳定,又解决了货币供给.伴随着外币资产的过快增长,这种货币供给机制势必引发外汇占款激增,理论上央行能够对冲过剩的流动性,但在实际操作中,央行的对冲流动性工具不能无限使用.只要人民币存在升值预期,我国货币供给受纠冲击的风险就不断累积.为了化解货币危机,必须消除人民币升值预期,对我国经济发展战略、人民币汇率形成机制进行涮整.     

The Form. Measurement and Management of Inflation Anticipation

通货膨胀是影响各国经济发展和社会稳定的重要问题,而通胀预期又是影响实际通货膨胀的重要因素。我国通货膨胀随着社会转型开始呈现周期性变化,对我国通货膨胀基于成本推动型、需求拉动型、结构型等等的研究也已经较多,但不容忽视的是,我国通货膨胀的惯性特征很强,通货膨胀的滞后效应十分明显,究其原因是通胀预期的作用。本文基于对通胀预期形成的认识,对其影响因素进行研究,然后通过实证分析,得到通胀预期形成的相关结论,最后对通货膨胀的管理提出政策建议。     

A journey through the museum: Visit factors that prevent or further visitor satiation

Museums seek to provide visitors with memorable experiences. However, some visitors experience a hedonic decline and satiation after their visit. The present research aims to evaluate how the time spent, the route, and the anticipation of the visit might either prevent or further visitor satiation. A field study and a field experiment are performed. Findings reveal that spending more time in the museum and anticipating the content can increase the perceived satiation and diminish visitors' emotional response, although the attention level diminishes for short visits and when the content is not anticipated. In a real context, following a free route reduces perceived satiation, with visitors following a self-regulatory process and adapting the time spent to the level of satiation.     

Why does on-farm storage fail to mitigate price volatility?

We analyze the role of farm stock management on price volatility under liquidity constraints and heterogeneous price expectations. In commodity markets, speculative behaviors by stockholders tend to reduce price volatility, but this is not the case in certain agricultural markets, where speculation by farmers regarding decisions to sell or store grain is subject to liquidity constraints and heterogeneous price expectations. Like stockholders, most farmers sell grain if they expect a price drop in the near future, but unlike stockholders, they are not necessarily able to purchase grain if they expect a price increase in the next period. Heterogeneous price expectations can also lead to suboptimal storage decisions, further increasing price volatility. For these reasons, the storage management behavior of farmers often fails to mitigate price drops in the way that speculation by stockholders does. We merge historical data on maize prices and household storage collected in Burkina Faso in order to build a dynamic panel over the 2005–2012 period. We show that carryover from one season to the next is associated with unexpected price drops during the preceding lean season and that carryover is associated with more frequent unexpected price drops following the subsequent post‐harvest season.     

Wellbeing trajectories around life events in Australia

Wellbeing trajectories around key life events are calculated using HILDA data for Australia. Employing a panel quantile approach, a pan-distributional analysis of these major events identifies distinctive adjustment patterns across the subjective wellbeing distribution and differing orders of magnitudes. For all life aspects analysed, immediate impacts tend to be more acute at the lower end of the wellbeing distribution. The implication of this is that if we are concerned with measuring changes in wellbeing, the point at which we measure these changes is important. Given the increasing importance of wellbeing to broader measures of economic prosperity, these findings touch upon a number of important policy areas. A focus upon social ostracization and a reduction in the persistence of long-term unemployment are all suggested as ways of alleviating the detrimental impact of this important policy variable.     

Sophisticated play by idiosyncratic agents

Agents are drawn from a large population and matched to play a symmetric coordination game, the payoffs of which are perturbed by agent-specific heterogeneity. Individuals observe a (possibly sampled) history of play, which forms the initial hypothesis for an opponent's behaviour. Using this hypothesis as a starting point, the agents iteratively reason toward a Bayesian Nash equilibrium. When sampling is complete and the noise becomes vanishingly small, a single equilibrium is played almost all the time. A necessary and sufficient condition for selection, shown to be closely related (but not identical) to risk-dominance, is derived. When sampling is sufficiently incomplete, the risk-dominant equilibrium is played irrespective of the history observed.JEL Classification: C72, C73The authors thank Tom Norman, Kevin Roberts, Hyun Shin, Peyton Young, the editor and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Correspondence to: C. Wallace