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1.
We propose a new methodology for predicting electoral results that combines a fundamental model and national polls within an evidence synthesis framework. Although novel, the methodology builds upon basic statistical structures, largely modern analysis of variance type models, and it is carried out in open-source software. The methodology is motivated by the specific challenges of forecasting elections with the participation of new political parties, which is becoming increasingly common in the post-2008 European panorama. Our methodology is also particularly useful for the allocation of parliamentary seats, since the vast majority of available opinion polls predict at national level whereas seats are allocated at local level. We illustrate the advantages of our approach relative to recent competing approaches using the 2015 Spanish Congressional Election. In general, the predictions of our model outperform the alternative specifications, including hybrid models that combine fundamental and polls models. Our forecasts are, in relative terms, particularly accurate in predicting the seats obtained by each political party. 相似文献
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美国国家科学基金会于2006年设立了科技政策学研究计划(SciSIP),经过十多年发展,在数据与方法研究以及共同体建设方面取得了重要进展。聚焦于SciSIP计划及其历年项目成果,对SciSIP计划发展历程进行总结,对SciSIP计划的研究成果和面临的挑战进行分析,以期为中国推进科技政策学研究及"科技政策学"这一新兴学科建设提供建议。 相似文献
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首先阐述了企业应对反倾销会计信息证据效力保障机制的研究意义,明确了该机制研究的理论基础是由一个整合理论框架,以及严谨的概念基础和良好的创新语境等组成。然后,对国内外研究现状进行了动态分析,把国内学者相关研究的新进展和成效,国外经典的研究方法体系和关注企业策略性行为对反倾销的影响,战略性"反倾销管理"理念,作为设计我国企业应对反倾销会计信息证据效力保障机制的借鉴,从企业战略层面及相应的制度配置与协调上,构建了与我国企业应对反倾销相适应的会计信息证据效力保障机制。 相似文献
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Arch G. Woodside 《Journal of Business Research》2012,65(3):279-293
“Incompetency training” includes formal and informal instruction that consciously (purposively) or unconsciously imparts knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and behavior (including procedures) that are useless, inaccurate, misleading, and/or will lower performance outcomes of the trainee versus no training or training using alternative training methods. “Imparts” in the definition refers to exposing a trainee to incompetency training; such exposure is not a guarantee that the training increases the trainee's incompetence. This editorial is to stimulate research interest among scholars in incompetency training theory, evidence, and the efficacy of remedies. The editorial offers an early workbench model of incompetency training theory. The theory includes the proposition that executives and associates in firms, academia, and government organizations consciously as well as unknowingly offer incompetency training in many contexts. Increasing trainees' vigilance and ability to recognize exposure to incompetency-training may help trainees to decrease the effectiveness (impact) of exposures to incompetency training—advancing incompetency training theory and knowledge of incompetency training practice may be necessary conditions for remedying negative outcomes that follow from trainees receiving such training. Available evidence supports the first proposition and, to a limited extent, the second proposition. 相似文献
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本文基于1990—2009年间68个主要国家和经济体的面板数据,从管理效率、市场竞争性和盈利能力三个基本方面对影响一国银行业效率的相关因素进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:从宏观经济政策来看,保持宏观经济的持续稳定增长,稳步推进资本账户开放,将有助于提高一国银行业的整体效率;从银行产业发展来看,银行业效率的提高需要在保持适度资产规模和产业集中度的基础上,防止银行信贷的过度扩张和银行危机的发生;从制度文化发展来看,加强产权保护,促进社会信用文化水平的提升,将有助于一国银行业效率的整体提升。 相似文献
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随着我国对外贸易的迅速发展,贸易摩擦不断增加,主要反映在欧美国家对我国出口产品的歧视性反倾销,导致我国出口企业蒙受巨大经济损失。从会计角度看,出口企业应诉反倾销的关键在于提供准确、完善的会计信息资料。其中,环境成本资料又是应诉反倾销会计举证的重要内容。出口企业应重视产品环境成本的核算,根据产品生命周期界定环境成本的内容,确立应诉反倾销的环境成本核算方法,提高会计举证在应诉反倾销中的有效性。 相似文献
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Perri 《Journal of Risk Research》2013,16(4):301-304
This paper is about understanding the rhetoric of precaution and the practice of decision-making in areas of environmental controversy. It untangles the rhetoric, as established in documented agreements referring to precaution, from the constituent ideas that embody it, as characterized by those who deliberate on its application. By analysing the ways in which the rhetoric of precaution is framed within these documents it is possible to identify different elements that make up the principle in theory. By focussing on the constituent ideas behind the precautionary principle it is possible to move forward from the stalemate of rhetoric that could become the focus of attention itself. 相似文献
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税务机关可以对纳税人实施调账检查,但必须在3个月内完整退还调取的所有资料。如果部分应作为证据的资料没有退还,是否违反了这一规定?税务机关已做出的税务处理及处罚决定是否有效?碰到类似问题应如何处理?本文通过案例进行了分析。 相似文献