Understanding machine learning-based forecasting methods: A decomposition framework and research opportunities

Machine learning (ML) methods are gaining popularity in the forecasting field, as they have shown strong empirical performance in the recent M4 and M5 competitions, as well as in several Kaggle competitions. However, understanding why and how these methods work well for forecasting is still at a very early stage, partly due to their complexity. In this paper, I present a framework for regression-based ML that provides researchers with a common language and abstraction to aid in their study. To demonstrate the utility of the framework, I show how it can be used to map and compare ML methods used in the M5 Uncertainty competition. I then describe how the framework can be used together with ablation testing to systematically study their performance. Lastly, I use the framework to provide an overview of the solution space in regression-based ML forecasting, identifying areas for further research.     

Innovation and public procurement: Terminology,concepts, and applications

The growing awareness of public procurement as an innovation policy tool has recently sparked the interest of both policy makers and researchers. While an increasing number of studies is being published every year, an overview of the field is missing. Researchers, practitioners, and policy makers are often using ambiguous wording and have not yet reached consensus on the terminology and concepts involved. This state of affairs leads to research fragmentation and lack of knowledge convergence. For the purpose of contributing to knowledge synthesis and consolidation, this article provides a structured review of the literature on innovation in public procurement. From categorizing publications based on innovation drivers, concepts, and research approaches, the emerging structure of the field is described and synthesized into a framework of innovation in public procurement. The proposed framework differentiates between literature streams on (1) innovations in the public procurement process, (2) innovation of public services by means of procurement, and (3) the use of public procurement as a tool for demand-side innovation policy-making. For each of these streams of literature, different focus areas as well as research gaps and opportunities for future research are identified. Based on analysis of existing research, the proposed framework provides an overview of state-of-the-art knowledge, a unified terminology, and a holistic understanding of innovation in public procurement. The framework is both a point of departure for future research and a source of knowledge for practitioners.     

‘Real without being concrete’: the ontology of public concern and its significance for the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF)

Abstract

Public concern is a pivotal notion in the risk perception, communication and management literature. It is, for example, a central concept with regard to the social amplification of risk, and as a justification for policy attention. Despite its ubiquity, the notion of public concern remains a ‘black box’ presenting a poorly understood state of affairs as a reified matter-of-fact. Paying attention to the deployment and metrics of public concern, and the work it is required to do, will enhance the power of approaches to understanding risk, and policymaking. Thus, the broad purpose of this paper is to unpack the notion of public concern by adopting an ontological yet critical perspective, drawing on a range of literature that considers ontology. We reflect on how publics and public concern have been conceptualised with regard to the dichotomies of individual/social and private/public, given that they imply different levels and dimensions of concern. We draw on empirical work that illuminates the assessment and measurement of public concern and how the public have responded to risk events. Considering public concern through an ontological lens affords a means of drawing renewed critical attention to objects that might otherwise appear finished or ready-made.     

Application of LADM for the integration of land and housing information in China: The legal dimension

The integration of land and housing registration is a key opportunity for China: improved land governance is the intended outcome. Prior to the design of any integrated information system, the legal requirements the system must satisfy need to be identified. This paper identifies and reviews the legal requirements for the integration of land and housing information in China. Specifically, the existing legislative framework relating to land, consisting of seven levels of legislation, is interrogated. A collection of legal requirements emerges: these are categorized into themes including registration, maintenance, mortgage, transfer of real estate rights, relevant materials and archives, and preliminary notice. In order to be more applicable for the next design of the Land Administration Domain Model (LADM) country profile for China, these legal requirement are further converted into packages, classes and attributes by referring to the ISO 19152 standard. The existing databases of the Chongqing Municipality are used to support the modelling process. The paper concludes that the legal requirements can be used as a foundation for an integrated system in China.     

The challenge of legitimizing spatially differentiated regulation: Experiences from the implementation of the Danish Buffer zone act

Differentiating regulation is a promising approach to agri-environmental regulation that may potentially reduce the environmental impact of agriculture at the lowest possible costs for the farmers and society, but also possesses a number of challenges. In this article, we explore the challenges to the legitimacy of agri-environmental regulation that occurs when the regulatory regime changes from general regulation to differentiated regulation. The analysis is based on a case study of the implementation of the Buffer zone act in Denmark – a regulation that prevents agricultural production in a 10 (later 9) meter fringe around selected waterbodies. We distinguish between two different ways of legitimizing: Producing knowledge and participation. We conclude that to harvest some of the obvious benefits of differentiated regulation a number of challenges must be resolved, 1) ensuring legitimacy of differentiated regulation is crucial, 2) differentiated regulation imply that farmers are also differentiated, 3) differentiated regulation implies new uncertainties, 4) the current knowledge regime need to be reconfigured, 5) stakeholders feel that they are unevenly treated and 6) it is difficult to establish a win–win solution for all farmers on an individual level.     

国际资金循环测度的统计方法及应用

研究目标：本文研究如何测量国际资金循环（Global Flow of Funds，GFF），试图整合国际金融相关数据源，创建GFF统计矩阵。研究方法：讨论了GFF的基本概念，确定了国际资金循环的统计范围。按照2008SNA所提倡的From Whom to Whom 的统计基准，建立了GFF的统计框架，据此框架整合了国际金融组织之间的数据系统关系和现有的国际金融统计数据源。研究发现：利用相关统计创建了GFF矩阵模型表，试编了一个包含中国在内的由11个国家所构成的“国家×国家”的GFF统计矩阵表。研究创新：创建了GFF矩阵表，展开了以中国为主要观测对象的国际跨境资本比较分析。研究价值：建立了观测GFF统计，开辟了新的分析视野，客观揭示了中国在GFF中的状况及现存的主要问题。     

Creating sustainable value in the hospitality industry: a (critical) multi-stakeholder study in the Dominican Republic

This paper identifies sustainable initiatives reported by “sustainability-champion” hotels in the Dominican Republic, while contrasting them against the views of key stakeholders. We adapt and apply Hart and Milstein's Sustainable Value Framework, and complement it with a Critical Management Studies approach. Our analysis relies on a mixed-methods approach (non-hierarchical k-means cluster analysis, as well as thematic and content analysis). Findings indicate that most hotels are engaging more actively in present-oriented strategies such as pollution prevention (especially, the international hotels) and in product/service stewardship. However, in the future-oriented strategies, hotels owned by local investors show higher commitment to both clean technology and innovation, and to the sustainability vision (as the firm's growth path). In addition, although the views of multiple stakeholders show a clear acknowledgment of the hospitality industry's sustainability efforts (particularly regarding education and environmental protection), they also offer differing views about the ultimate impact and value of those efforts for them and for the broader society. Our study offers a new theoretical lens to explore multi-stakeholder approaches and offers practical implications for the Dominican Republic's National Strategy for Development 2010–2030, as well as implications that may be of use for other tourism-dependent countries.     

Multiple Levels of Corporate Sustainability

According to Dr. Clare Graves, mankind has developed eight core value systems,1 as responses to prevailing circumstances. Given different contexts and value systems, a one-solution-fits-all concept of corporate sustainability is not reasonable. Therefore, this paper presents various definitions and forms of sustainability, each linked to specific (societal) circumstances and related value systems. A sustainability matrix– an essential element of the overall European Corporate Sustainability Framework – is described showing six types of organizations at different developmental stages, with different forms of corporate sustainability, each supported by specific institutional arrangements.     

An Analysis of Concepts and Evidence on the Question of Whether IFRS Should be Conservative

Do international accounting standards require conservative accounting? The IASB's conceptual framework suggests that they should not, while the research literature is largely silent on the matter, typically presuming conservatism to be an outcome of private contracting rather than standardized, public, general purpose financial reporting. In this paper, we analyze the actual requirements of IFRS. We find multiple examples of recognition requirements that lead to unconditional conservatism, measurement requirements that lead to conditional conservatism, and also presentation/disclosure requirements that further support a conservative reporting environment. These findings complement, support and deepen existing evidence in the empirical literature that accounting is in practice conservative. We show, however, that the requirements for conservatism in IFRS conflict with, first, the IASB's stated position in its conceptual framework that accounting should not be conservative and, second, the private contracting explanation for conservatism that is generally accepted in the literature. What is missing, and lies behind both conflicts, is an acknowledgement and understanding of the role of an agency/contracting perspective in enhancing the decision‐usefulness of general purpose accounting standards, given the information/incentive asymmetry and uncertainty that characterizes the real‐world context in which those standards operate. From a policy perspective, such an understanding would reconcile the IASB's conceptual framework with the actual requirements of IFRS. From a research literature perspective, such an understanding would re‐position accounting standards as central to the practice of accounting conservatism, which would in turn require revision to the generally accepted theory of a private contracting explanation for the empirical evidence of conservative accounting practice.     

德国碳排放权交易管理架构与职能*

德国是欧盟碳交易体系中最为重要的成员国，德国对欧盟碳交易体系的实践，对我国碳交易体系的建设和管理具有借鉴意义。本文综述德国对碳交易体系的管理与执行组织架构，以及欧盟碳交易体系在德国前两个阶段的执行情况，为我国碳交易体系的建立提供参考。