The end of the flat tax experiment in Slovakia: An evaluation using behavioural microsimulation in a dynamic macroeconomic framework

The paper introduces a new way of linking microsimulation models with dynamic general equilibrium frameworks to obtain an evaluation of the impact of detailed tax and benefit measures on the aggregate economy. In the approach presented in this paper, income heterogeneity interacts with the macro-economy via aggregated individual labour supply decisions which influence, and are influenced by, the dynamic evolution of the real wage rate. The method involves a reduced-form representation of the information flow between the macroeconomic and microeconomic blocks. The practical usefulness of the approach is demonstrated by evaluating actual and hypothetical tax reforms that involve abandoning the flat tax system in Slovakia. A hypothetical move to a highly progressive tax structure is shown to generate some employment gains but is associated with a drop in aggregate income and tax revenue.     

Estimating matching functions when recruiting intensity matters

The article estimates matching functions – the relationships between new hires, job vacancies and unemployment – using monthly time series data for Sweden. The data contain rich information on types of job vacancies which provides information on firms’ recruiting efforts. The analysis shows that the aggregate flow of new hires is well explained by an augmented version of a standard matching function that incorporates data on firms’ recruiting intensity.     

Unemployment and econometric learning

We apply well-known results of the econometric learning literature to the Mortensen and Pissarides real business cycle model. Agents can always learn the unique rational expectations equilibrium (REE), for all possible well-defined sets of parameter values, by using the minimum-state-variable solution to the model and decreasing gain learning. From this perspective the assumption of rational expectations in the model could be seen as reasonable. But using a parametrisation with UK data, simulations show that the speed of convergence to the REE is slow. This type of learning dampens the cyclical response of unemployment to small structural shocks.     

Unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing

Labor unemployment insurance reduces unemployment concerns. We argue that these benefits moderate incentives to smooth earnings to reduce employees’ concerns about unemployment risk. Using exogenous variations in unemployment insurance benefits, we find evidence consistent with this argument. We also find that the link between unemployment insurance benefits and income smoothing is stronger when there is higher unemployment risk and when the firm is likely to employ more low-wage workers, who find unemployment insurance benefits especially useful. Our paper contributes to the literature by showing that public policy decisions such as unemployment insurance have significant, albeit probably unintended, externalities on corporate financial reporting.     

Testing for cointegration with threshold effect between unemployment and stock prices

Under the dominant role of a belief function, Farmer argues that the stock market is the Granger cause of the unemployment rate, which implies that the natural rate hypothesis is an outdated idea. This article provides some new empirical evidence supporting this view using threshold cointegration and asymmetric error correction models. The results show that these models can assess asymmetric dynamics between unemployment and the stock market. Moreover, regime switches of the momentum threshold autoregressive adjustment specification are highly consistent with recessions in the US economy during the last 60 years.     

Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions

Accurate identification of economic recessions in a timely fashion is a major macroeconomic challenge. The so-called Sahm recession indicator (Sahm, 2019), one of the most reliable early detectors of the U.S. recessions, relies on changes in unemployment rates, and is thus subject to misclassification errors in labor force statuses based on survey data. We propose a novel misclassification-errors correction to improve the predictive timeliness and provide a proper threshold value. Using historical data, we show that the adjusted unemployment-based recession indicator offers earlier identification of economic recessions.     

中国失地农民与下岗职工的社会保障水平比较分析

随着中国城市化进程不断加快,非农建设用地也大幅度增加,每年由于征地而形成的失地农民数量不断增长。文章将失地农民的状况与下岗职工进行比较,由此分析失地农民在失业保险和收入保障中存在的问题即失地农民失业保险制度的缺失,并借鉴下岗职工的做法,提出了建立和完善失地农民新型失业保险制度的构想。     

Persistence and stochastic convergence of euro area unemployment rates*

This paper analyzes unemployment rates in the euro area (EA) countries to test for EA-related benefits and economic integration of the EA in the form of lower unemployment rates and unemployment rates convergence. We employ recently developed unit root tests with structural breaks and non-normal errors to analyze the persistence, test the stochastic convergence and locate structural break(s) in EA unemployment rates from 1995q1 to 2016q2. Our results imply a certain degree of unemployment hysteresis in the EA. Even though the results support the stochastic convergence of the majority of EA countries, we find that EA membership is not a sufficient condition for stochastic convergence. Nevertheless, EA-related breaks are followed by the periods of convergence to the EA11 average. Crisis-related breaks are followed by the periods of divergence. Although providing initial benefits, EA is not functioning as an optimal currency area.     

The joint impact of labour policies and the “Great Recession” on unemployment in Europe

The paper consists of an empirical analysis of the separate as well as joint impacts on total and youth unemployment of indicators of labour market policies on the one hand, and the financial crisis associated with the “Great Recession” on the other. In particular, we investigate labour market data in the past two decades for the Enlarged Europe and adopt a variable accounting for the idiosyncratic severity shock of the crisis. This time-varying and country-specific crisis variable enables us to test empirically and in a novel way the joint impact of labour market policies and the economic crisis on labour market dynamics even when accounting for common macro shocks.     

TEN YEARS OF GENERAL OLIGOPOLISTIC EQUILIBRIUM: A SURVEY

In this paper, I survey the recent and rapidly increasing theoretical literature using the brand‐new approach in embedding oligopolistic competition in general equilibrium, as designed by J. Peter Neary. First, I introduce the reader to Neary's approach, by describing the main ingredients. Then, I present a comprehensive set of studies that, over the last decade, apply this approach in different contexts, most of which are in open economy, and I examine the relevant outcomes. Although the theoretical literature has generously advanced, there is a lack of research on the empirical side, which would be an important area for future research besides theoretical extensions, some of which I highlight in the conclusions.