Dynamic Tax Evasion with Habit Formation in Consumption*

We model the optimal intertemporal decision of an agent who chooses tax evasion and consumption, over an infinite lifetime horizon, where consumption is driven by habits. We find the following: (i) tax evaders reduce consumption in the early stages of habit accumulation and increase it over time; (ii) habit formation has a dampening effect on tax evasion; (iii) neglecting tax evasion can lead to habit overestimation; (iv) the effect of the tax rate on tax evasion is ambiguous; (v) heavy fines are more efficient than frequent controls in reducing tax evasion.     

Life insurance decisions under recursive utility

In this paper, we generalize recursive utility to include lifetime uncertainty and utility from bequest. The generalization applies to discrete-time as well as continuous-time recursive utility, and it is an important step forward in the development of recursive utility. We formalize the problem of optimal consumption, investment, and life insurance choice under recursive utility, and we state a verification theorem with a generalized Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Our generalization of recursive utility allows us to study optimal consumption, investment, and life insurance choice under separation of (market) risk aversion, elasticity of inter-temporal substitution, and elasticity of substitution between bequest and future utility. The separation gives rise to hump-shaped consumption patterns as observed in realized consumption.     

Extending the BG/NBD: A simple model of purchases and complaints

Extant customer-base models like the beta geometric/negative binomial distribution (BG/NBD) predict future purchasing based on customers' observed purchase history. We extend the BG/NBD by adding an important non-transactional element that also drives future purchases: complaint history. Our model retains several desirable properties of the BG/NBD: it can be implemented in readily available software, and estimation requires only customer-specific statistics, rather than detailed transaction-sequence data. The likelihood function is closed-form, and managerially relevant metrics are obtained by drawing from beta and gamma densities and transforming these draws to a sample average. Based on more than two years of individual-level data from a major U.S. internet and catalog retailer, our model with complaints outperforms both the original BG/NBD and a modified version. Even though complaints are rare and non-transactional events, they lead to different substantive insights about customer purchasing and drop-out: customers purchase faster but also drop out much faster. Furthermore, there is more heterogeneity in drop-out rates following a purchase than a complaint.     

吴子良生平、文论及散文特色

吴子良是南宋永嘉学派的重要传人。他一生居官办实事,不畏强权,崇尚气节。论文主张＂主之以理,张之以气,束之以法＂。他的散文颇富文人特色：句式整齐,多用偶句;设譬用喻,辞藻丰富;层次清晰,结构严整;议论深刻,记叙生动。     

Finite lifetimes,long-term debt and the fiscal limit

The U.S. faces exponentially rising entitlement obligations. I introduce a fiscal limit—a point where higher taxes are no longer a feasible financing mechanism—into a Perpetual Youth model to examine how intergenerational redistributions of wealth, the average duration of government debt, and entitlement reform impact the consequences of explosive government transfers. Three key findings emerge: (1) Growing government transfers cause more severe and more persistent stagflation than in representative agent models that do not capture intergenerational transfers of wealth; (2) A longer average duration of government debt pushes the financing of government liabilities into the future and reduces the short-run impacts of explosive transfers; (3) The time it takes the economy to rebound from a period of growing transfers increases exponentially with the number of years it takes to pass entitlement reform.     

顾客终生价值在CRM绩效管理中的作用

从顾客终生价值 (CustomerLifetimeValue ,CLV)的定义、计算公式和测量步骤 ,可以看出CRM绩效管理的核心目标是使企业的顾客群的顾客终生价值最大化。同时 ,任何企业中都存在顾客价值创造的五个杠杆 ,但是对于不同的细分市场 ,为了使潜在的价值创造最大化 ,应该不同地混合使用这五个杠杆。     

An empirical study of dynamic customer relationship management

We apply the Gönül and Shi (1998) approach to the analysis of the optimal messaging and pricing policy mix by studying the past transaction patterns between a local supermarket and its consumers. We develop a dynamic customer relationship management model and investigate the relationship between customer utility and purchasing frequency by modifying the return function of the model discussed in Gönül and Shi (1998). In particular, we extend the analysis to consider a messaging and pricing policy mix, and we use a genetic algorithm in our empirical estimation. When applied to some non-seasonal products in a local supermarket, we find that our model is suitable and far superior to the one-stage model commonly used. Our dynamic model gives the optimal marketing mix strategies in different customer states and the results show that the firm could enjoy a 22% increase in profit.     

A rejoinder to the commentaries on Professor Chambers' 1999 paper the poverty of accounting discourse

The resource presented in this paper introduces and contextualises the teaching of Customer Lifetime Valuation (CLV) to management accounting students. CLV is a relatively recent innovation. It involves calculating the present value of expected net cash flows generated over the lifetime of an organisation's relationship with a particular customer/customer segment and using this information better to manage returns derived from a customer base. The Teaching Resource provides an introduction to the topic, suggested learning objectives, suitable student reading, and an innovative case (OzInsure case) facilitating students' technical competence and evaluation of CLV. Also included are suggested solutions and further background information situating the use and development of the teaching resource. Feedback received from peers and students indicates the utility of the Teaching Resource, and provides guidance as to its future development. More generally, this resource illustrates the feasibility of using instructors' research experiences to inform learning in management accounting.     

Customer Selection and Prioritization

Abstract

That a firm benefits most when customers stick around for the long haul is a central premise of relationship marketing. This conviction has manifested itself over the past decade in the form of numerous formal loyalty programs that aim to seek and foster customer relationships. Scant evidence for the success of such programs has accrued since. This has lead firms to re-evaluate their investments in customer relationship management. Optimal resource allocation models address issues of relative investments in customer acquisition versus retention, and on managing relationships with profitable customers so that the value of a firm's customer base is maximized.     

The Future of Managing Customers as Assets

SUMMARY

Most companies do a very poor job of determining the economic value of their customers. There are three primary reasons that this has been the case: (1) inadequacy of technology, (2) managements' internal focus on products (as opposed to customers), and (3) inadequacy of accounting systems. Each of these areas, however, has undergone rapid transformation in terms of their sophistication and managerial usefulness. As a result, it is manifest destiny that asset valuation and management will evolve to the evaluation of a company's most fundamental asset, its customers (i.e., customer lifetime value). Most managers have come to accept this inevitability. What managers fail to realize is just how radically an understanding of customer lifetime value will transform the business landscape. It will dramatically impact the breadth and type of data collected; the way managers view and segment customers; the types of experiences firms offer customers; the metrics executives provide to the financial markets; and the way companies structure and staff their organizations.