A note on forecasting international tourism demand in Spain

This paper considers the extent to which price and income proxy variables help in forecasting tourist demand in Spain. Contrary to some recent studies, we found that the inputs' contribution in terms of fitting and forecasting is nil when compared with alternative univariate models. Whether these findings are the results of the restrictions embedded in building the proxy inputs or in a poor specification of the dynamics of these models remains to be seen. We also contend that when dealing with medium, long-term forecasting comparisons, the use of the traditional aggregate accuracy measures like RMSE and MAPE help very little in discriminating among competing models. In these situations, predicted annual growth rates may be a better alternative.     

Asymmetric volatility in the foreign exchange markets

We examine the presence or absence of asymmetric volatility in the exchange rates of Australian dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR), British pound (GBP) and Japanese yen (JPY), all against US dollar. Our investigation is based on a variant of the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility model, using daily realized variance and return series from 1996 to 2004. We find that a depreciation against USD leads to significantly greater volatility than an appreciation for AUD and GBP, whereas the opposite is true for JPY. Relative to volatility on days following a positive one-standard-deviation return, volatility on days following a negative one-standard-deviation return is higher by 6.6% for AUD, 6.1% for GBP, and 21.2% for JPY. The realized volatility of EUR appears to be symmetric. These results are robust to the removal of jump component from realized volatility and the sub-samplings defined by structural-changes. The asymmetry in AUD, GBP and JPY appears to be embedded in the continuous component of realized volatility rather than the jump component.     

Are Securitizations in Substance Sales or Secured Borrowings? Capital‐Market Evidence*

Two standard‐setting approaches have emerged globally to guide the choice of accounting for securitizations: the control and components approach (SFAS No. 125 and SFAS No. 140) and the risks and rewards transfer approach (IAS No. 39). A lack of consensus about derecognition accounting is a major impediment to achieving convergence in global standards that must be resolved. Thus, both SFAS No. 140 and IAS No. 39 will be reexamined, and evidence pertinent to the debate is timely and important. In this study, we present evidence consistent with the view of credit‐rating analysts, who view many securitizations as, in substance, secured borrowings. Specifically, for a sample of originators applying sale accounting guidance in SFAS No. 125 / 140 during the period 1997‐2003, we show that off‐balance‐sheet debt related to securitizations has, on average, the same risk‐relevance for explaining market measures of risk (that is, CAPM beta) as on‐balance‐sheet debt. We also find that, in a returns and earnings association framework, the pricing multiple on securitization gains declines as the amount of off‐balance‐sheet debt increases, implying that investors take off‐balance‐sheet debt into account when assessing the valuation‐relevance of such gains. For those who advocate the control and components approach to securitization accounting, our results suggest that, at least for frequent securitizers, the put option arising from implicit recourse is a “missing piece” that is not currently accounted for when calculating securitization gains. Our results challenge the extant measurement standards in SFAS No. 140.     

Demand for broad money and expenditure components in Japan: an empirical study

The main objective of the present study is to examine empirically the long-run relation of broad money demand and its determinants in Japan. In contrast with previous study, the present study considers various components of final expenditure demand as determinants that are final consumption goods, expenditure on investment goods and exports. Using quarterly data over the period 1973Q1–2000Q2, the results of the bounds test [J. Appl. Econ. 16 (2001) 289] indicate a stable long-run relationship between demand of real M2 and its determinants. The empirical results also highlight that different domestic demand components yields different effects on Japanese broad money demand behavior. The estimated unrestricted error-correction model appears to track the data well and the results have important policy implications.     

河北省城市竞争力比较研究分析

随着经济的发展,河北省的区域经济差距进一步拉大.采用主成分分析法建立城市竞争力计量模型,对河北省11个地级市城市竞争力进行逐一测度,发现河北省城市竞争力水平比较低.解决这一问题,要提高企业的核心竞争力,发挥企业的主动性;改善投资环境;改变经济增长方式;最后必须要重视人才.     

物流产业评价指标与方法的探讨

本文首先对物流产业的概念进行界定,提出物流产业的判断基准;然后根据物流产业的内涵进行评价指标的设计,主要包括物流产业规模、效益、结构、资源、市场潜力等五个大类指标;最后运用主成分分析法建立物流产业的评价模型.     

Macroeconomic forecasting using structural factor analysis

The use of a small number of underlying factors to summarize the information from a much larger set of information variables is one of the new frontiers in forecasting. In prior work, the estimated factors have not usually had a structural interpretation and the factors have not been chosen on a theoretical basis. In this paper we propose several variants of a general structural factor forecasting model, and use these to forecast certain key macroeconomic variables. We make the choice of factors more structurally meaningful by estimating factors from subsets of information variables, where these variables can be assigned to subsets on the basis of economic theory. We compare the forecasting performance of the structural factor forecasting model with that of a univariate AR model, a standard VAR model, and some non-structural factor forecasting models. The results suggest that our structural factor forecasting model performs significantly better in forecasting real activity variables, especially at short horizons.     

Restricted maximum likelihood estimation under Eisenhart model Ill

For a balanced two-way mixed model, the maximum likelihood (ML) and restricted ML (REML) estimators of the variance components were obtained and compared under the non-negativity requirements of the variance components by L ee and K apadia (1984). In this note, for a mixed (random blocks) incomplete block model, explicit forms for the REML estimators of variance components are obtained. They are always non-negative and have smaller mean squared error (MSE) than the analysis of variance (AOV) estimators. The asymptotic sampling variances of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators and the REML estimators are compared and the balanced incomplete block design (BIBD) is considered as a special case. The ML estimators are shown to have smaller asymptotic variances than the REML estimators, but a numerical result in the randomized complete block design (RCBD) demonstrated that the performances of the REML and ML estimators are not much different in the MSE sense.     

抗感冒药的成分分析与合理使用

通过对抗感冒药主要成分的分析,确立合理使用抗感冒药的原则,避免重复用药或滥用药带来的不良反应,从而真正做到合理、安全、有效地使用抗感冒药.     

Information Content of Earnings and Earnings Components of Commercial Banks: Impact of SFAS No. 115

SFAS No. 115 modified classification of debt and equity securities held by firms and also modified the reporting format for unrealised gains/losses on security transactions (URGL). This study investigates whether implementation of SFAS No. 115 improved information content of earnings and earnings components of commercial banks. Improvement in the information content is measured by comparing the association between equity returns and earnings and earnings components of the post-adoption period of SFAS No. 115 with the pre-adoption period.The test results indicate that the association of equity returns with earnings components and aggregate earnings is significantly stronger in the post-adoption period compared to the pre-adoption period. The improvement is especially evident for the components of URGL and non-interest revenues. These results suggest that information provided by earnings components is considered more value relevant for investment decision after implementation of SFAS No. 115. Findings on non-interest revenues indicate that revenues from banking activities other than lending also play an important role in the commercial banks' profitability.