会计投资者保护功能评价及其指数研究

本文探讨了投资者保护机制的内涵与本质,会计在投资者保护中的功能,并介绍了会计投资者保护评价体系及其指数,通过指数分析,对我国的会计投资者保护现状进行了评价。投资者保护体系是一个融合法律规范、社会规范与市场机制的综合体系,在不断完善法律机制的同时,需要不断开发与建设投资者保护的社会规范机制与市场机制,会计在投资者保护机制中作为基础性信息与基础性制度具有不可替代的功能。     

基于价值创造和公司治理的财务状态分析与预测模型研究

我国约70%的上市公司处于价值损害状态。考虑到公司在对债权人违约之前,必先经历损害股东价值的阶段。因此,本文根据“价值创造观”(Value-Creation)来考察“价值损害型公司”的动态变化及其影响因素,并收集我国1998—2003年540家价值损害型上市公司的有关财务变量,首次引入公司内外部治理变量,应用“排序因变量模型”分析财务状态变化的影响因素,并采用“人工神经网络技术”,预测价值损害型企业的五种变化趋势:财务康复、财务转好、财务维持、财务转差或财务困境。结果表明:(1)总资产收益率等财务指标的改善,公司治理水平的提升或投资者保护程度的增强都有助于公司财务康复,反之则将导致公司陷入财务困境。(2)若公司在T年被界定为价值损害型公司,当采用T年和T+1年的数据分别构造“LMBP神经网络模型”来预测企业T+2年的财务状况的五种态势时,则预测准确率分别为55.1%和77.8%。(3)除财务指标外,股票超额收益率、本文构造的公司治理指数和投资者利益保护指数有助于预测价值损害型企业未来财务状态的变化趋势。     

Earnings attributes and investor-protection: International evidence

This study explores the effects of investor-protection on reported earnings quality assessed on the basis of four accounting-based earnings attributes (accruals quality, earnings persistence, earnings predictability, and earnings smoothness). We test the hypothesis that favorable values of each earnings attribute (considered individually) occur in countries whose institutional characteristics provide relatively strong investor-protection. The results based on K-means cluster analysis of institutional characteristics are mixed. Earnings smoothness is less prevalent in strong investor-protection countries, as hypothesized. However both accruals quality and earnings predictability are better in countries whose institutional characteristics are relatively weak. No association is found between investor-protection and earnings persistence, except that countries with low ownership concentration appear to have high earnings persistence. The results based on regression analysis are consistent with those based on the cluster analysis. These results imply that conclusions about the impact of institutional characteristics on earnings quality depend on how earnings quality is measured.