LABOUR SUPPLY ESTIMATION AND PUBLIC POLICY

Abstract. Economists devote considerable energies towards refining their econometric techniques to overcome difficulties connected with conducting empirical research. Despite advances in technique. it is not clear whether further refinement in this direction is worthwhile for policy purposes. It may be that no further amount of statistical adjustment of inadequate data will increase understanding, and that better data is simply necessary to add to our knowledge. But rarely is sufficient credit paid to new forms of data. In short, econometric technique is emphasized to the neglect of data innovation, as if new data were merely lying about waiting for an ingenious suggestion for use. This paper surveys advances of the last twenty five years in estimating labour supply for policy purposes with a view towards appreciating the relative contribution of both improvements in econometric technique as well as developments of new data.
After briefly detailing the key parameters which economists have sought to estimate, we describe the early 'first generation' research (circa 1970), which is plagued by problems of unobservable variables, measurement errors, truncation and selectivity bias, and non linear budget constraints. 'Second generation' research constitute attempts to resolve one or more of these difficulties, and the respective contribution of econometric technique and new data is acknowledged and assessed, including the contribution of data generated by large scale social experiments in which participants are randomly assigned to different guaranteed income plans and their labour supply behaviour measured.     

Regional job-turnover and industrial policy. a note on a potential time pattern of regional industrial policies and their job effects - the case of the german city-state of bremen

Many regions have experienced long-run economic fluctuations generated by the life cycles of their dominant industrial clusters. During the downswings in the 1970s and 1980s, proactive structural policies were typically launched in German regions to combat job losses in their core clusters and to create new jobs in new industries. With respect to the German State of Bremen, this paper provides empirical evidence of: (1) a long-run regional downswing; (2) the potential job effects of proactive regional industrial policy programmes in terms of increasing regional employment, by safeguarding jobs in the regional core industries and creating new jobs in new growth industries; and (3) a time pattern in the job effects, which are related to the different generations of programmes.     

社会养老保险新政的运行效果分析——基于沈阳市国有大型企业的调查

利用调查数据重点考察了社会养老保险新政的实际运行效果,指出了目前存在职工参保意愿不强烈、政策有效性尚不明显、对制度长期建设缺乏信心等现实问题,以期对养老保险制度的改革完善提供理论和政策依据。     

股市波动、金融政策和宏观经济关系研究——基于因子VAR模型

通过因子分析从诸宏观经济变量中提取了金融政策因子和宏观经济状态因子,建立了基于VAR的股价波动、金融政策和宏观经济三变量回归模型。研究表明：金融政策影响股价的表现,而宏观经济状态对股价、股价对金融政策和宏观经济状态的影响均不显著;基于标准差的VAR（5）模型相对于基于收益率的VAR（3）模型能更好地刻画股市波动与金融政策、宏观经济三者之间的关系。     

Changing monetary transmission mechanisms within the EU

The paper presents a comparative analysis of monetary transmission mechanisms and changes in them after the secondERM in March 1983. The empirical model investigates the determination of money, income, prices, and interest rates in Germany, Denmark, and Italy based on the cointegratedVAR model. It provides empirical results on the macroeconomic effects of joining theERM and financial deregulation.     

Inflation pressure and price intervention: an ominous combination∗

Of the debate regarding the new round of surging inflation in China, structural opinion interprets inflation as a problem of structural price growth, mainly brought about by a price hike for selected commodities as a result of exogenous shocks from different sectors. In line with the explanation, various measures aiming to control prices have been implemented recently. On the basis of basic economic principles and empirical evidence drawn from four cases, this essay argues that price intervention policies are counter-productive in bringing inflation down.     

中国政策市的行为思考

本文回顾了中国股市十多年来的政策干预历史,并总结了其中的规律所在:1997年前,政府干预呈现反转模式;1997年后,政府干预呈现趋势模式。文章对该规律的形成给出了行为解释,并据此提出了相关投资建议和政策建议。     

代际角度下农民工市民化差异分析与政策诉求的变化——基于襄阳市农民工的调查

通过对襄阳市100位农民工的深度访谈,了解到两代农民工在家庭生活、职业发展、社会融入、心理期待、价值观念等方面还存在着较大代际差异及政策诉求的变化。认为应从户籍制度、职业技能培训、住房制度改革、政治参与等政策调整来应对农民工代际差异所产生的新诉求。     

中国上市公司现金股利支付可能性影响因素分析

关于现金股利,大多数文献只是对影响现金股利支付水平的因素进行研究,对现金股利支付可能性大小研究的尚不多。本文以我国上市公司为样本,实证分析了上市公司现金股利的支付特点及支付可能性的影响因素,研究发现,公司面临现金流的不确定性程度、所处周期、面临的投资机会等因素对公司股利支付的可能性有重要影响,最后提出了相应的政策建议。