Dynamic Currency Linkages and Their Determinants: An Empirical Study for East Asian Economic Community Region

In this article, Copula GARCH models have been employed to study the inter-temporal process of currency market co-movements between ASEAN+6 countries (referred to in this study as East Asian Economic Community) and ASEAN+6 currency market index. Empirical results show that the sample countries of the region exhibit varying levels of currency co-movements with the Asian benchmark. Markov regime switching results show that many of the countries which had high dependences with the regional currency index as was found in copula estimations had also overlapping currency market cycles. Using Principal Component Analysis, we find that three statistical factors explain exchange rate co-movements which came out to be trade linkages, economic risk, and currency market openness in our dynamic panel data estimation.     

The World Is Not Enough! Small Open Economies and Regional Dependence

In this paper, we explicitly introduce regional factors into a global dynamic factor model. We combine new open economy factor models (emphasizing global shocks) with the recent findings of regional importance in the business cycle synchronization literature. The analysis is applied to a large panel of domestic data for four small open economies. We find that global and regional shocks explain roughly 30 and 20 percent, respectively, of the business cycle variation in all countries. While global shocks have most impact on trade variables, regional shocks explain a relatively large share of the variation in cost variables.     

HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?

Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co‐movement of business cycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.     

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.     

The synchronization club: classification of global economic groups by inequality

We find that, from 1970 to 2006, the GDPs of 181 countries are described by a log-normal with a power law tail before 1992, but by a kinked power law distribution after 1992. In the 15 years from 1992 to 2006, there are two obvious scale-free zones for annual GDPs, ranked from the largest to smallest. If the countries in each scaling region are regarded as a group, the world is divided into two groups, each with a roughly stable number of members. The power exponents of the two groups are different and hence lead to different inequalities. Therefore, the basis for classification is the macro-consistent inequality within each group. The wealth grows in a synchronous nonlinear manner within groups that have a stable wealth distribution and rank structure. If each group is considered as a club, we name it a ‘synchronization club’.     

一种基于Android系统的嵌入式数据库同步方案

近年来,无线应用业务迅速发展,大大地丰富了人们的沟通和生活方式。本文作者结合基于Android系统的应用软件开发,介绍了服务器数据库与客户端SQLite数据库的一种同步方案。其中涉及到XML、Java DOM等基本技术。     

The Discouraging Effect of Risks in WTO Negotiations: Determinants and Perceived Changes

The observation has frequently been made that uncertainty about the legal meaning and the economic and political effects of WTO agreements exert a discouraging effect on the progress of multilateral trade negotiations. This article identifies the determinants of uncertainty and risk in the WTO. It also examines changes in these determinants over time, pointing to increasing levels of uncertainty and risk. The argument is based on a series of interviews conducted with members of national delegations to the WTO and with WTO employees.     

一种新的SC—FDE系统粗定时同步算法

定时同步是单载波频域均衡(SC-FDE)系统的一项关键技术,其中的粗定时同步算法决定着同步收敛速度,由Schmidl和Cox提出的传统算法中出现的测度峰值平台影响着粗同步的精度与速度。通过训练符号格式的重新设计,利用其中4个相同部分良好的相关特性,提出了一种基于特殊训练符号的粗同步算法。仿真结果表明,在高斯白噪声信道和多径衰落信道条件下,新算法定时偏差估计的方差和均值接近于理论值,粗定时同步能够精确地完成,较好解决了测度峰值平台问题。     

基于IEEE802.11a的符号定时同步新方法

<正>张媛的“电子商务与税收新理念的探析”一文,在本刊2005年第6期发表后,本刊收到西南财经大学尹音频检举张文存在抄袭内容的来信。本刊立即展开调查工作,现将有关调查与处理情况公告如下: 1．经鉴定,张文大量甚至原封不动地抄袭了尹音频的“电子商务税收理念与     

初相注入式快速符号同步的一种实现方法

通过平方滤波算法对时钟初相进行预估计,实现了Gardner算法下初相注入式符号同步.该方法具有快速、高精度的特点,尤其是较好地解决了初始点为过零点的极端情况下,Gardner算法收敛方向不确定、收敛时间较长的问题.计算机仿真和实际应用证实了该方法的有效性.