创新要素投入产出效率随机变动测度与结果分析

创新要素配置在投入产出两个环节中生成大量不完全技术信息，投入产出效率随机变动更加明显。从投入产出数据集合中提炼共同因子，与不可观测变量构成预测器，建立因子增广向量自回归模型(FAVAR)，分析随机变动方差构成，测度投入产出效率随机变动程度。随机变动效应包括水平效应、稳定性效应和规模效应。投入产出效率自回归扰动项表示随机变动程度，将其细分为共同因子，计算预测器方差及其与投入产出效率的协方差。基于669家上市公司月度、季度、半年度和年度技术研发数据，比较分析投入产出效率随机变动程度及形成原因，引入脉冲响应法分析变量方差构成与变动特征，提出相关政策建议。     

政策不确定性对公司投融资行为的影响研究

本文以2003-2013年中国A股上市公司的财务数据和31个省市自治区地方官员的变动数据为样本,采用地方官员变动率作为地方政策不确定性的代理变量,研究了政策不确定性对企业投融资的影响。研究发现,政策不确定性显著降低企业的债权融资,但是对股权融资影响不显著。政策不确定性对企业投资的影响存在两种渠道,一是通过降低企业融资来影响投资,二是通过企业资本运作降低融资对投资的影响系数,即政策不确定性越高,企业债权和股权融资对投资的正向作用会越小,这种作用机制在国有企业、大企业等与政策联系紧密的企业中作用更为显著。融资可获得性是政策不确定性影响投资的重要前提之一,融资可获得性较小时,政策不确定性显著降低了企业投资;在融资可获得性较大时,政策不确定性影响不显著。加强长期制度建设,降低政策不确定性,对于稳增长具有重要意义。     

历史制度主义视野下我国科技人才政策战略转型与变革逻辑

改革开放以来，我国科技人才政策历经恢复调整、初步确立、转型完善、深化改革到全面建设等5个发展阶段。基于历史制度主义分析范式，探究我国科技人才政策变革逻辑与动力机制。结果显示，路径依赖是我国科技人才政策保持结构稳定性与内在连贯性的基本阐释工具，体现在回报递增效应、多主体协作效应和制度场域自我强化等方面；关键节点在政治逻辑作用下成为科技人才政策变革的原始驱动力，其本质是在保证政治属性不变的前提下建构以绩效为核心的强制性制度变迁。进一步，在借鉴发达国家成熟经验的基础上，构建以“缓冲器”式中介组织为核心的行政认同、市场协调和学术本位之间的合理张力，进而推进利益相关者群体利益协调与整合机制成为我国科技人才政策不断自我革新的有效治理路径。     

Change-point detection for expected shortfall in time series

Expected shortfall (ES) is a popular risk measure and plays an important role in risk and portfolio management. Recently, change-point detection of risk measures has been attracting much attention in finance. Based on the self-normalized CUSUM statistic in Fan, Glynn and Pelger (2018) and the Wild Binary Segmentation (WBS) algorithm in Fryzlewicz (2014), this paper proposes a variant WBS procedure to detect and estimate change points of ES in time series. The strengthened Schwarz information criterion is also introduced to determine the number of change points. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of our variant WBS procedure about ES in time series. An empirical application is given to illustrate the usefulness of our procedure.     

创新要素流动与产业结构变迁关系及其空间溢出效应研究

创新要素流动既是优化资源配置的关键，又是产业结构调整的内在动力，反之，产业结构变迁又会通过微观效应推动创新主体创新。基于1998-2018年内地30个省市面板数据，研究了创新要素流动与产业结构变迁的互动关系及空间溢出效应。回归结果表明：R&D人员流动对本地区产业结构高级化以及其它地区产业结构合理化具有促进作用，同时，抑制了本地区产业结构合理化与溢出地区产业结构高级化；R&D资本流动对本地区产业结构高级化以及其它地区产业结构合理化具有抑制作用，但是对本地区产业结构合理化以及其它地区产业结构高级化具有促进作用；产业结构合理化对R&D人员及R&D资本流动具有促进作用，但是抑制了其它地区的R&D资本流动。     

规则流变视角下农村基层治水体系建设——以福建省永春县农田水利设施管护改革为例

实施乡村振兴战略以来,各级政府对农村水利的投入不断增加,然而"政府管不到、集体管不好、市场管不了"的现象仍然存在,跨村水利管护机制缺失、基层治水规则与秩序失范问题亟待解决。本文以福建永春县吾峰镇农田水利设施管护改革为例,分析基层村镇场域中治水规则的建立与变革,从边界、身份、选择等7项规则入手剖析其对基层治水有效性的作用机制。研究发现,治水规则深刻影响了吾峰镇水利管护的行动情境:边界规则突破了原有以行政边界划定的资源治理边界,并鼓励企业等新行动主体进入;身份规则、选择规则明晰了管护主体的合约关系,确定了权责监督机制;偿付规则实现了良好的激励作用;信息规则推进了基层治水的公开、透明化运营;聚合规则创新了基层民主的可实现形式;范围规则通过试点选择创造了政策空间。在7项基层治水规则的共同作用下,吾峰镇农田水利设施管护改革摆脱了管护主体缺失困境和跨域治水合作困境,实现了治水行为的规范有序和管护绩效的稳步快速提升,促进了农村基层治水能力的现代化建设。     

SHIFTING BOUNDARIES IN ECONOMICS: THE INSTITUTIONAL COGNITIVE STRAND AND THE FUTURE OF INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS

This paper aims at contributing to the debate on the future of institutional economics and of the field as a whole by starting from the literature that discusses the relationship between Old‐Original Institutional Economics and New Institutional Economics. It suggests that the process of reunifying OIE and NIE (and evolutionary economics) prompted by part of the literature could be improved by the contribution of the Cognitive Institutional Economics. The paper follows a two‐stage pathway: first, it frames the debate on the relationships between NIE and the OIE and it concentrates on a subset of the literature that shows that NIE's recent developments complicate the distinction between NIE and OIE, and it explores the possibility that NIE and OIE may merge so that an amalgam of NIE, OIE and Evolutionary Economics becomes the next economic paradigm. Secondly, the paper argues that a step forward in the direction outlined by the literature has been made by CIE, which is a research stream that developed from cross‐fertilization among NIE, OIE and the Hayekian contributions to the analysis of institutions. In the concluding remarks, the possible emergence of a single institutional paradigm is discussed in the light of the literature about change in economics.     

Corporate Name Change and the Market Valuation of Firms: Evidence from an Emerging Market

Investors’ responses to a firm’s name change and the determinants of their response are scantly explored areas in the field of behavioral finance. Based on a sample of 415 Indian firms from 2005 to 2014, this study suggests that investors respond positively to the announcement of firm name changes. Furthermore, the study indicates that when firms do not indicate geographical specificity in the name and have a specific rather than generic name, then the firm will experience greater abnormal returns. Also, when firm names are fluent and are associated with the owner’s family name, again, abnormal returns generated are positive. Nevertheless, as a firm ages and investors gain more information about it, then abnormal returns due to name change decrease.     

论服务业在国民经济中的"黏合剂"作用

服务业在国民经济中的地位不断上升,已不再是"边缘化的或奢侈的经济活动",而是位于经济的核心地带.服务业在国民经济中的突出作用表现在它具有"黏合剂"的功能,也正因为这一功能使之成为经济增长和效率提高的助推器、经济竞争力提升的牵引力、经济变革与经济全球化的催化剂.切实培育与发挥服务业的经济牵引力、产业整合力与国际竞争力,有助于更好地推进我国的产业结构优化升级,形成以制造业为支撑、服务业全面发展的产业格局,增强服务贸易和商品贸易的国际竞争力,促进我国国民经济持续快速健康协调发展.     

An investigation of cultural cohesion in a community bank

This study examines the culture of a medium-sized community bank based in the Western United States. The study aims to identify the organization's culture and then measure the level of cultural cohesion that exists three years after a major cultural campaign was launched. The cultural characteristics the organization valued most highly were integrity, willingness to serve the customer and teamwork - all components of the official bank document on culture. Interestingly, the analysis uncovered some significant value differences among different employee groups and also employees and management; differences which can affect firm performance levels. The analysis also revealed that changing the culture in an organization does not necessarily lead to cultural cohesion.