EMPIRICAL PERFORMANCE OF GARCH MODELS WITH HEAVY‐TAILED INNOVATIONS

We introduce a new type of heavy‐tailed distribution, the normal reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution (NRIG), to the GARCH and Glosten‐Jagannathan‐Runkle (1993) GARCH models, and compare its empirical performance with two other popular types of heavy‐tailed distribution, the Student's t distribution and the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (NIG), using a variety of asset return series. Our results illustrate that there is no overwhelmingly dominant distribution in fitting the data under the GARCH framework, although the NRIG distribution performs slightly better than the other two types of distribution. For market indexes series, it is important to introduce both GJR‐terms and the NRIG distribution to improve the models’ performance, but it is ambiguous for individual stock prices series. Our results also show the GJR‐GARCH NRIG model has practical advantages in quantitative risk management. Finally, the convergence of numerical solutions in maximum‐likelihood estimation of GARCH and GJR‐GARCH models with the three types of heavy‐tailed distribution is investigated.     

Cost comparison of continued anticoagulation with rivaroxaban versus placebo based on the 1-year EINSTEIN-Extension trial efficacy and safety results

Aims: The EINSTEIN-Extension trial (EINSTEIN-EXT) found that continued treatment with rivaroxaban for an additional 6 or 12 months (vs placebo) after 6–12 months of initial anticoagulation significantly reduced the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) with a small non-significant increased risk of major bleeding (none fatal or in critical site). This study aimed to compare total healthcare cost between rivaroxaban and placebo, based on the EINSTEIN-EXT event rates.

Methods: Total healthcare cost was calculated as the sum of treatment and clinical event costs from a US managed care perspective. Treatment duration and event rates were obtained from the EINSTEIN-EXT study. Adjustment on treatment duration was made by assuming a 10% non-adherence rate. Drug costs were based on wholesale acquisition costs. Cost estimates for clinical events (i.e. recurrent deep vein thrombosis [DVT], recurrent pulmonary embolism, major bleeding, clinically relevant non-major bleeding) were determined from the literature. Results were examined over a ±20% range of each cost component and over 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of event rate differences in deterministic (one-way) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA).

Results: Total healthcare cost was $1,454 lower for rivaroxaban-treated (vs placebo-treated) patients in the base-case, with a lower clinical event cost fully offsetting drug cost. The cost savings of recurrent DVT alone (–$3,102) was greater than drug cost ($2,723). Total healthcare cost remained lower for rivaroxaban in the majority (73%) of PSA (cost difference [95% CI]?=?–$1,454 [–$2,396, $1,231]).

Limitations: This study was conducted over the 1-year observation period of the EINSTEIN-EXT trial, which limited “real-world” applicability and examination of long-term economic impact. Assumptions on drug and clinical event costs were US-based and, thus, not applicable to other healthcare systems.

Conclusions: Total healthcare costs were estimated to be lower for patients continuing rivaroxaban therapy compared to those receiving placebo in VTE patients who had completed 6–12 months of VTE treatment.     

《技术制图》新旧标准对照

以对照方法介绍了《技术制图》与《机械制图》中三个基础标准的适用范围、采标情况及基本内容。     

网上证券交易的国际比较和借鉴

网上证券交易是全球证券经纪业务发展的一大趋势，而我国在这方面尚处于初步发展阶段，文章主要阐述借鉴其他国家在网上证券交易的相关做法，结合我国现状提出对发展我国网上证券业务的建议。     

中外影视广告的故事性比较

中国人是很会讲故事的,但在影视广告中却没能讲出几个让人感动的故事,广告人的讲故事能力被限制在叫卖中了.中国广告中的故事,不是平淡就是生硬,过渡不圆滑,有些假.不像外国影视广告中的故事,很自然,很流畅,有顺理成章的逻辑关系.其原因,一是中国影视媒体上投放广告需要大量资金,所以影视广告被做得很短;二是广告人没有继承讲故事的传统,没有形成讲故事的素质.     

当前我国地区比较优势的若干思考

根据比较优势理论，客观地分析、论证各地区的比较优势，是国家制定区域经济发展、经济布局政策的基本依据。也是各地区制定正确的产业政策、发展战略，实现区域经济健康、协调发展的主要前提。     

中西方国家农产品流通比较

发达国家农产品流通主要是通过批发市场,多以公开拍卖的现代化销售方式进行;流通组织主体多元化,特别是农业专业合作社十分发达;政府的流通管理归口划一,行业协会发挥作用较大.同时,许多发达国家都把农产品的贮藏、保鲜、加工放在农业的首位,非常重视农产品加工及其深度利用技术,农产品质量检测体系健全.农产品流通支持政策也较多.相比之下,中国的农产品流通还有许多工作要做.     

反差与引证:控辩法律文书的个案解读

在刑事诉讼中,起诉书与辩护词是控辩双方主要的法律文书。对非对应的两者作比较研究,这种反差能使我们从独特的视角反观我国刑事诉讼程序设计的不足。而个案的引证与解析,不仅是一种切入的方法使然,更是一种鲜活文本的实证。     

跨文化词义的比较与翻译

词汇是语言符号和体言中的最小的有意义的语言载体,对跨文化词义的社会性、文化性、民族化、地理环境和喻体相异性、习俗的文化意义等进行比较,有助于跨文化翻译.采用异化法、异化解释法、归化法、归化意译法等方法,将翻译置于跨文化交际中进行,以达到跨文化交际中的文化效应最大近似或对应.     

倾销幅度测算中的偏颇之处

倾销幅度测算是裁定倾销以及实施反倾销措施的依据和基础。然而,具体操作过程中存在的偏颇之处,使得调查结果总是倾向发现“倾销幅度”,从而裁定倾销存在。本文以倾销幅度测算过程中的不合理之处为分析对象,举例说明了在很多情况下,原本不存在的倾销行为,是如何在现行的规定下被测算出了“倾销幅度”。