基于CD—ESDA模型的新疆产业用水增长质量的时空格局分析

本文将水资源约束与经济增长、技术进步和结构变动因素相耦合,用以评价新疆产业用水增长质量。通过构建产业用水的边际效应分解模型,计算了新疆2005—2010年产业用水的规模、技术及结构的边际效应,并进行了时空分异分析。在此基础上构建了新疆产业用水增长质量指数,运用ESDA方法,探讨新疆产业用水增长质量的空间关联模式,得出研究期内产业用水增长质量呈现正的空间自相关,并且空间集聚方式以H—H、L—L为主要特征,区域空间差异明显。因此,新疆应该继续调整产业结构,加强用水技术的引进与创新,促进水资源在产业内部及产业间循环利用;经济发达且用水质量较高的地州应该发挥经济增长极的作用,改善经济落后地州的产业用水增长质量。

Spatial-Temporal Pattern Analysis on Increasing Quality of Industrial Water Utilization in Xinjiang Based on CD and ESDA Model

Increasing quality assessment of industrial water utilization should be coupled with the factors such as resource constraint,economic growth,technological progress,and structure change. Based on Complete Decomposition（ CD） model,this paper calculate the marginal effects of three major determinants（ economic growth,technological changes and structure changes） through the marginal effects decomposition model,then the spatial and temporal differences characteristics of the marginal effects are discussed. Based on the above analysis,the increasing quality index of Xinjiang are calculated,then the Exploratory Spatial Date Analysis（ ESDA） method is applied to analyze the spatial association pattern of industrial water utilization increasing quality index in Xinjiang. The results show that the increasing quality of industrial water utilization exhibit positive spatial autocorrelation and H—H,L—L are the main character of spatial clustering,regional spatial differences are significant. Xinjiang should further adjust industrial structure,strengthen the introduction and innovation of water use technology and recycle the water resources among three industries. Developed prefectures which play a leading role as growth pole should help to improve the utilization quality of industrial water in undeveloped prefectures.