基于马尔柯夫模型的酒泉市肃州区LUCC趋势预测

甘肃省酒泉市近年来经济发展迅速,但生态环境也遭到一定程度的破坏;拟通过对其土地利用和覆盖变化的研究,为环境保护与经济协调发展提供决策支持;依据肃州区1988～2000年土地利用变更调查数据,对该区域LUCC进行分析,确定了土地利用类型的转移概率矩阵,并用马尔柯夫链模型预测了该区LUCC趋势。结果表明,肃州区土地利用将呈现耕地、水域和建设用地增加,林地、草地和未利用土地减少的发展趋势。

The forecast of land use and land cover change tendency based on Markov process in Suzhou District Jiuquan City Gansu Province

Many environment problems facing people are related with land use and land cover change nowadays.A simulation of land use and land cover change of Suzhou based on the updated data of land use investigation is established.Analyzing land use and land cover change of Suzhou,the transition probability of land use pattern is defined,and the tendency of its change is forecasted with application of Markov process.The results indicate that the land use in Suzhou is increasing on cultivated land,water area and city construction land,decreasing on forestland,grassland and unused land.Therefore,the suggestion that quality of cultivated land,land environment and the intensively of building land should be improved is put forward,forbidding loping forest which is ban,forest and grass land should be protect.