人民币实际有效汇率与中国对中亚五国贸易收支的实证研究

在分析中国对中亚五国的贸易收支特点和人民币实际有效汇率变化的基础上，运用协整理论，实证分析了中国对中亚五国贸易收支与人民币实际有效汇率、中国国内实际收入、中亚五国国内实际收入的关系。研究结果表明：中国对中亚五国贸易收支与人民币汇率之间不存在因果关系；中国对中亚五国贸易收支变化有利于中国与中亚五国国内收入的增长；在人民币升值的情况下，中国对中亚五国贸易收支的改善，主要是因为双方经济结构的互补性强。

An Empirical Study on the Real Effective Exchange Rates of RMB and the Trade of China-Central Asia Countries

Based on analysis of the development of trade between China and Central Asia countries and the real effective exchange rates of RMB, the paper empirically analyzes the relationship among the real effective exchange rates（REER） of RMB, real GDP of China, real GDP of Central Asia countries and trade of China-Central Asia countries according to co-integration. The study shows that there is no causal relationship between REER of RMB and trade of China-Central Asia countries; the trade of China-Central Asia countries is helpful to the growth of China;income and Central Asia countries＇ income; and under the ex- pectation of revaluation of the RMB, trade of China-Central Asia countries is developing because of the complementary economic structure of China and Central Asia countries.