我国金融发展对国际贸易的影响及区域差异——基于跨省面板数据的协整分析和广义矩估计

本文针对有关我国金融发展影响国际贸易的现有研究只重视国家层面、忽视区域差异的事实,基于跨省面板数据,运用面板协整理论和广义矩估计方法,不仅就全国整体,更深入东、中、西部区域内部实证分析了我国金融发展对国际贸易影响的长期均衡和短期动态影响。结果表明:无论是在长期,还是在短期,全国金融发展对进、出口都有着显著的促进作用,但在不同区域,其影响差异显著。其中,东部地区金融发展对进出口的长期促进作用明显大于中、西部地区;而短期内,虽然东部金融发展促进了进出口,但中、西部金融发展却不同程度地制约了进出口的发展。

The Effects of Financial Development on Foreign Trade and Their Regional Difference in China-Cointegration Analysis and GMM Based on Crossed Provinces Panel Data

Aimed at the fact that the researches concerning the effect of financial development on foreign trade focus on the perspective of countries but neglecting the difference of regions, this paper uses panel cointegration theory and generalized method of moments (GMM) to analyze the long term equilibrium effect and short dynamic effect of financial development on import/export and contrast the difference of the effect among eastern, middle and western China based on crossed provinces panel data. The results show that financial development has remarkable push effect on import/export both in long term and short term, but the effect is different in different areas. In which, the push effect of eastern area is stronger than that of other areas in the long term, while the picture is different in short term, although financial development has obvious push effect on import/export in eastern China, yet financial development restraints import/export in middle and western China.