Swiss National Bank communication and investors’ uncertainty |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Tourism and Hospitality, TransWorld University, No. 1221, Zhennan Rd., Douliu City, Yunlin County 640, Taiwan;2. Department of Economics, Soochow University, No. 56, Kueiyang Street, Section 1, Taipei 100, Taiwan;1. Department of Business Administration, Fu Jen Catholic University, No. 510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City 24205, Taiwan;2. Department of Business Administration, National Chin-Yi University of Technology, No. 57, Sec. 2, Zhongshan Rd., Taiping Dist., Taichung 41170, Taiwan |
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Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of Swiss National Bank communication on stock investors’ uncertainty. Monetary policy news is identified via changes in short- and medium-term futures prices as well as by applying methods from computational linguistics and dictionary approaches to policy statements. Surprises in policy rate changes and regarding the future path of the policy rate exhibit an asymmetric effect on stock investors’ uncertainty. Moreover, by taking into account various topics addressed in the statements, I show that investors’ uncertainty decreases due to an optimistic tone in communications about economic growth. Increased uncertainty expressed in policy statements translate into increasing stock investors’ uncertainty. The results explain how news contained in monetary policy statements reduce noise in financial markets and therefore contribute to financial stability. |
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Keywords: | Monetary policy Communication Stock markets Uncertainty |
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