Interrelations in market fears of U.S. and European equity markets |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, Westminster Business School, University of Westminster, London NW1 5LS, UK;2. Department of Economics and IME, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain;1. Department of Finance, Chung Yuan Christian University, 200 Chung Pei Road, Chung Li City, Taiwan, ROC;2. Department of Information Management and Finance, National Chiao-Tung University, 1001 Ta Hsueh Road, Hsinchu, Taiwan, ROC;3. Newhuadu Business School, Minjiang University, 1 Wenxiao Road, University Town, Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, China;1. Center for Central China Economic Development Research and School of Economics & Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China;2. School of Finance, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing 210023, China;3. School of Business, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213164, China |
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Abstract: | We examine interdependence between the implied volatilities of U.S. and five European markets in an integrated multivariate system that allows interactions in the first and second moments of volatility processes. Our results find significant interactions in the variance-covariance matrix of VIX and European volatilities which persist and facilitate risk transmission. Changes in U.S. and Eurozone volatilities are important drivers of risk shocks in European markets. VIX and European volatilities have predictive ability for each other. Further, VIX shocks contribute significantly to the prediction error of European risk shocks, but not vice versa. Risk transmission from U.K. markets to U.S. and European markets intensified around the Brexit vote. Also, VIX shocks added significantly more to European risks during the global financial crisis. Our results highlight the potential weakness of risk transmission models that ignore the second-moment risk transmission channel and have implications for volatility trades, portfolio diversification strategies, and hedging the cross-market risks. |
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Keywords: | VIX European markets VARMAX-GARCH Brexit Risk transmission G11 G15 |
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