Commodity prices and GDP growth |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Economics, Tsinghua University, China.;2. Institute of Economics, Tsinghua University, China.;1. Department of Statistics and Finance, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China;2. Nottingham University Business School China, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo, China;1. AQR Capital Management, Two Greenwich Plaza, Greenwich, CT 06830, United States;2. University of Texas at Austin, 2225 Speedway, Austin TX 78712, United States;3. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138, United States |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the extent to which commodity prices can predict GDP growth rates of various countries using indices of 27 commonly traded commodity futures. Commodity returns can strongly predict the next quarter's GDP growth, while the basis shows a reasonable level of predictive power. Overall, commodity prices can be considered a leading indicator of economic growth; increasing commodity prices and basis values indicate a stronger future economy. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
