Catastrophe bond spread and hurricane arrival frequency |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Finance, California State University, Fullerton, United States;2. Institute of Finance, National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan;3. China University of Technology and National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan;1. School of Securities and Futures, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, China;2. Department of Finance, National Central University, No. 300, Jhongda Rd., Jhongli City, Taoyuan County 32001, Taiwan, ROC;3. School of Securities and Futures, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, No. 55, Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu, Sichuan 610074, China;1. Department of Financial Engineering and Actuarial Mathematics, Soochow University, Taipei 10048, Taiwan;2. College of Management, Yuan Ze University, Taoyuan 32003, Taiwan;3. Department of Quantitative Finance, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu 30010, Taiwan;1. Economics Department, The University of Western Australia, and Faculty of Finance, Banking and Business Management, Quy Nhon University, Viet Nam;2. Business and Economics Research Group, Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Viet Nam;1. ISCAL – Lisbon Accounting and Business School, Instituto Politécnico de Lisboa, Av. Miguel Bombarda, 20, 1069-035 Lisbon, Portugal;2. SOCIUS – Research Centre in Economic and Organizational Sociology, CSG – Research in Social Sciences and Management, Rua Miguel Lupi, 20, 1249-078 Lisbon, Portugal;3. ISEG – Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal;4. UECE – Research Unit on Complexity and Economics, Rua Miguel Lupi, 20, 1249-078 Lisbon, Portugal |
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| Abstract: | Catastrophe bonds are the most successful alternative risk transfer tools in transferring catastrophic insurance risk to capital markets. This research provides empirical insights about the predictive power of catastrophe bond spreads in forecasting catastrophe arrival frequency as a test of the catastrophe bond market’s price discovery efficacy. Primary-market data for cat bonds, catastrophe arrival frequency data for hurricanes and windstorms, and climate variable data for Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and CO2 change rate are collected over June 1997 to March 2013 to examine this power. The calibration results show that cat bond spreads convey valuable incremental information as measured by the Akaike Information Criterion. Furthermore, in an out-sample test for hurricanes prediction, merging the conventional climate variables approach with our market-based forward-looking predictions reduces prediction errors by about 3% over the sample period. As the catastrophe bond market continues to grow with increasing trading volume, a needed ingredient to enhance market efficiency, we would expect this measure of improvement to accentuate. |
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| Keywords: | Catastrophe bonds Price discovery function Climate variables forecasting approach Poisson regression Negative binomial regression |
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