On the asymmetric effects of exchange-rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade |
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| Authors: | Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee Toan Luu Duc Huynh Muhammad Ali Nasir |
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| Institution: | 1. Center for Research on International Economic, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, USA;2. Chair of Behavioral Finance, WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, Vallendar, Germany
School of Banking, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam;3. School of Banking, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam |
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| Abstract: | We consider the response of each of the 67 industries that trade between the United States and United Kingdom to the volatility of the real dollar–pound exchange rate. When we follow previous research and estimate a linear ARDL model for each industry, we find short-run effects of volatility in 22 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom that last into the long run only in nine industries. As for the UK exports to the United States, we find short-run effects in 18 industries that last into the long run in 15 industries. However, when we estimate a nonlinear model for each industry, we find short-run effects of volatility on 41 US exporting industries and on 43 UK exporting industries, all in an asymmetric manner. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 24 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom and in 33 UK exporting industries to the United States. While total trade shares of industries from the linear models were negligible, those of the industries from the nonlinear models were significant in size, in the tune of one-third of the trade. |
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| Keywords: | US-UK Trade 67 Industries dollar–pound volatility asymmetry |
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