山西省粮食生产时空变化及供求现状分析

目的 探析山西省粮食生产的时空变化及粮食供需结构现状。方法 文章选取2010—2019年山西省粮食生产和消费数据，借助ArcGIS10.2软件、EXCEL软件，采用重心研究模型和粮食安全贡献度模型，综合探析近年来山西省粮食供需变化及粮食安全现状。结果 （1）2001—2019年山西省粮食面积和产量整体稳中有增；种植结构以玉米、小麦为主，谷子、大豆、马铃薯为辅，以及高粱、燕麦、荞麦等小杂粮类；10年来，粮食生产变化表现为以增加玉米，减少小麦和杂粮生产为特点。（2）2010—2019年大豆、燕麦和小麦的产量重心表现为由西北向东南转移，其他种类均呈现由西南向东北方向转移；种植结构变化幅度由大到小依次为：马铃薯>荞麦>大豆>高粱>燕麦>玉米>谷子>小麦。（3）2011—2019年全省粮食产量稳定情况下，以2014年为转折点粮食需求量先降低再增加，调出量先增加再减少，至2018全省粮食调出量减少为负值；粮食需求结构中，口粮占53.65%，饲料用粮占比29.68%，工业用量仅占13.53%。运城市的粮食安全贡献度最大，其次为临汾市、忻州市、朔州市和晋中市较高，长治市、大同市、吕梁市和晋城市较低；太原市和阳泉市最低，为负值。结论 山西省粮食生产表现为总体平衡，种植优势由西南向东北方向转移的趋势，且各作物种植时空变化规律性不强；种植结构尚未形成区域特色产业，粮食需求量仍有逐年递增的趋势，粮食安全仍不容忽视。

ANALYSIS OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHANGE OF GRAIN PRODUCTION AND CURRENT SITUATION OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN SHANXI PROVINCE

This research aims to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of grain production and the current situation of grain supply and demand structure in Shanxi province. Based on the grain production and consumption data of Shanxi province from 2000 to 2019, and with the ArcGIS 10.2 software and EXCEL software, the center of gravity research model and food security contribution model was used to comprehensively analyze the changes in food supply and demand and grain in Shanxi province in recent years now. The results were listed as follows. (1)From 2001 to 2019, the grain area and output of Shanxi province increased steadily. The planting structure was mainly corn and wheat, supplemented by millet, soybeans and potatoes, as well as small grains such as sorghum, oats and buckwheat, and in the past 10 years, Changes in grain production were characterized by increasing corn and reducing the production of staple grains of wheat and miscellaneous grains. (2) From 2010 to 2019, the yield center of soybeans, oats, and wheat showed a shift from northwest to southeast, and other species shifted from southwest to northeast. The changing trend of planting structure was as follows: potato> buckwheat> soybean> sorghum > Oats> Corn> Millet> Wheat. (3) From 2011 to 2019, when the province''s grain output was stable, with 2014 as the turning point, the grain demand first decreased and then increased, the transfer volume first increased and then decreased. By 2018, the province''s grain transfer volume decreased to a negative value, and in terms of grain demand structure, rations accounted for 53.65%, feed grains accounted for 29.68%, and industrial consumption only accounted for 13.53%. Yuncheng had the largest contribution to food security, followed by Linfen, Xinzhou, Shuozhou, and Jinzhong, and Changzhi, Datong, Luliang, and Jincheng were lower, Taiyuan and Yangquan were the lowest with negative value. In summary, the grain production in Shanxi province shows an overall balance, the variety structure and the regional structure are unbalanced, the ration self-sufficiency rate is low, and the regional characteristic industry has not yet formed. The grain demand is still increasing year by year, and food security still cannot be ignored.