Recent weather fluctuations and agricultural yields: implications for climate change

We summarize recent statistical analyses that link agricultural yields to weather fluctuations. Similar to other sectors, high temperatures play a crucial role in predicting outcomes. Climate change is predicted to significantly increase high temperatures and thereby reduce yields. How good are such models at predicting future outcomes? We show that a statistical model estimated using historic US data on corn and soybean yields from 1950 to 2011 is very capable of predicting aggregate US yields for the years 2012–2015, where 2012 was much hotter than normal and is expected to become the new normal under climate change. We conclude by discussing recent studies on the implication of predicted yield declines with a special focus on adaptation and commodity prices.