(1) Chair of Finance, University of Mannheim, D-68131 Mannheim, Germany;(2) College of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tübingen, Mohlstraße 36, D-72074 Tübingen, Germany
Abstract:
In this paper we investigate Metallgesellschafts problem of hedging long-term forwards with short-term futures. Very different hedging strategies have been proposed in the literature. We attribute these differences to the underlying valuation approaches for oil futures and empirically compare five model-based hedging strategies. In particular, we consider a strategy which results from a two-regime pricing model. This continuous-time equilibrium model reflects the observation that prices of oil futures exhibit a very different behavior for low and high oil prices. Our empirical study shows that time diversification is the dominant effect for an effective hedging of long-term oil forwards with short-term futures.JEL classification G13, G30
s problem of hedging long-term forwards with short-term futures. Very different hedging strategies have been proposed in the literature. We attribute these differences to the underlying valuation approaches for oil futures and empirically compare five model-based hedging strategies. In particular, we consider a strategy which results from a two-regime pricing model. This continuous-time equilibrium model reflects the observation that prices of oil futures exhibit a very different behavior for low and high oil prices. Our empirical study shows that time diversification is the dominant effect for an effective hedging of long-term oil forwards with short-term futures.JEL classification G13, G30