| 宏观经济因素与人民币汇率浮动 |
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| 引用本文： | 闫树熙,肖庆宪.宏观经济因素与人民币汇率浮动[J].商业研究,2010(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 闫树熙 肖庆宪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 榆林学院,数学系,陕西,榆林,719000
2. 上海理工大学,管理学院,上海,200093 |
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| 基金项目： | 榆林学院高层次人才科研启动基金，上海市重点学科建设项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用协整检验和误差修正模型等计量经济学方法,就当前国内若干热点变动的宏观经济因素变量对汇改后人民币汇率的影响进行了实证研究,研究结果表明热点变动的中美利差水平、通货膨胀率差异水平以及外汇储备增长率与人民币升值幅度之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。长期来看,利差水平对人民币名义汇率影响程度较大,而短期内,外汇储备因素和人民币汇率自身变动的前期信息对其影响较为显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 人民币名义汇率 协整检验 误差修正模型 |
Study on Macroeconomic Factors and RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation |
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| YAN Shu-xi,XIAO Qing-xian.Study on Macroeconomic Factors and RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation[J].Commercial Research,2010(6). |
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| Authors: | YAN Shu-xi XIAO Qing-xian |
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| Institution: | YAN Shu-xi1,XIAO Qing-xian2(1.Department of Mathematics,Yulin College,Yulin 719000,China,2.School of Management,University of Shanghai for Science , Technology,Shanghai 200093,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the co-integration test,error correction model and other econometric methods,this paper empirically studies the impact of several hot macroeconomic factors on the current RMB exchange rate.The empirical results show that there exists a long-term stable co-integration relationship among interest rate differential,inflation rate differential,increasing rate of foreign exchange reserve and appreciation ratio of RMB nominal exchange rate.In the long run,interest rate differential has the most important... |
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| Keywords: | RMB nominal exchange rate co-integration test error correction model |
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