反倾销与特保措施经济效应的对比分析

2009年1月1日,中国加入WTO工作组报告第242段到期失效,进口国将不能再据此对我国纺织品出口采取特保措施,我国纺织业面临新的发展机遇,然而由于我国纺织品出口"量大价低"的现状,进口国势必转向反倾销等新贸易壁垒保护本国产业。采用一个进口国两个出口国的模型,将反倾销与特保措施的经济效应对比分析。研究结果表明,与特保相比,反倾销给我国造成的福利损失更大,对我国纺织产业更具威胁;进口国采取反倾销未必能改善本国福利,且对纺织产业的保护效果也值得怀疑。

Comparative Analysis of Economic Effects of Antidumping and Special Safeguard

Paragraph 242 of the Report of the Working Party for the Accession of China to WTO is to expire by the end of 2008,and importers can't thereafter invoke the clause to safeguard against textile exports from China,which means a new opportunity for China's textile industry.However under the existing export circumstances of "large quantity and low price",importers will be bound to turn to other trade barriers,antidumping for instance.By means of the model of "one exporter and two importers",the paper makes a comparative analysis of the economic effects of antidumping and special safeguard.The research indicates that compared with special safeguard,antidumping causes more losses to China's welfare and poses more threat to China's textile industry.On the other hand,antidumping may not bring improvement of welfare to importers and the protective effects on their textile industry are doubtable.