| 增加值贸易核算及其对均衡汇率评估的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 苏庆义,;薛蕊,;张焕波.增加值贸易核算及其对均衡汇率评估的影响[J].当代经济管理,2014(9):37-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苏庆义 ;薛蕊 ;张焕波 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国国际经济交流中心经济研究部,北京100017; [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 商务部政策研究室课题《人民币汇率与贸易关系》. |
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| 摘 要： | 全球价值链时代,增加值贸易核算更能反映国际贸易新形态。增加值贸易核算通过影响贸易权重和物价指数影响实际有效汇率的测算,进而影响对均衡汇率的评估。对人民币而言,2000年以来,基于增加值贸易核算而测算的实际有效汇率升值幅度高于传统测算方法的升值幅度。目前,人民币汇率很可能已经升值过度,超过了均衡汇率水平。相应的政策含义包括人民币汇率不宜再持续升值,通过降低贸易成本、价值链升级提升我国出口的竞争力,通过扩大进口降低顺差规模。
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| 关 键 词： | 全球价值链 增加值贸易核算 实际有效汇率 均衡汇率 |
Value-added Trade Accounting and Its Impact on the Evaluation of Equilibrium Exchange Rate |
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| Institution: | Su Qingyi, Xue Rui, Zhang Huanbo (1. China Center for International Economic Exchanges, Beijing 100017, China; 2. School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China) |
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| Abstract: | In the era of global value chain, value-added trade accounting can reflect the new form of international trade. Value-added trade accounting affects the calculation of real effective exchange rate （REER） according to the weight of trade value and price index, and thus has impact on the evaluation of equilibrium exchange rate. Since 2000, as for RMB, the appreciation magnitude of REER based on value-added trade accounting is larger than the appreciation magnitude based on traditional method. Currently, RMB is more likely to be overestimated. The policy suggestions are preventing the sustained appreciation of RMB, improving the export competitiveness according to reduction of trade cost and upgrading of value chain, reducing the trade surplus according to expansion of import. |
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| Keywords: | global value chain accounting of value added trade real effective exchange rate equilibrium exchange rate |
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