基于CGE模型的资源税改革对能源行业的影响研究——以煤炭行业为例

资源的过度使用导致经济发展不可持续和环境的恶化，税收具有较好的调节作用， 年内进行资源税改革已经列入计划日程。 由于煤炭在我国能源消耗中所占比例超过70%， 资源税改革会对煤炭需求和价格等产生影响。 基于 CGE 模型， 分析了不同资源税税率情境下我国煤炭需求和煤炭价格的变化趋势。 研究结果发现需求短期内会继续上升， 长期由于产业结构变化将会下降， 在价格上短期内将上升， 长期将下降。 因此， 应该早日推出资源税改革， 提高资源税税率， 清理煤炭企业不合理的负担等。

Study on the Impact of the Resource Tax Reform on the Coal Industry Based on the CGE Model

The excessive use of resources makes the economic development unsustainable and the environment deteriorative, but taxation has better regulation function. The resource tax reform has been listed within this year＇s work schedule. Since the proportion of coal in China＇s energy consumption is more than 70%, tht. resource tax reform will have an impact on coal demand and prices. This paper, based on the CGE model, analyzes the change trend of China＇s coal demand and prices in different resource taxation. The results find that the coal demand will continue to rise in the short-term, but will be reduced in the long-term, and the prices will rise in the short term, but will fall in the long term. Therefore, it is better to carry out, as early as possible, resource tax reform, improve the resource tax rate, and remove unreasonable burden from coal enterprises.