我国出口产业结构演变模式研究:1996-2006年

本文通过对出口产业结构演变的影响因素及其作用机制的分析,尝试性地提出了出口产业结构演变的3种模式:累积渐变模式、多样化模式和突变(颠覆)模式,并建立了一个分析出口产业结构变动模式及其影响因素的理论框架。在此基础上对我国入世前后(1996-2006年)出口产业结构的演变情况进行了实证分析。结果显示:1996-2001年,我国出口产业结构演变以累积渐变模式为主,多样化模式为辅;2001-2006年,我国出口产业结构演变以突变(颠覆)模式进行,结构突变的原因主要来自于引进资源和技术。自主创新和本国要素积累在结构演进中的作用有待进一步提高。

A Study on the Export Industrial Structure Change in China:1996-2006

Based on the theoretical analysis of factors and mechanism of export industrial structure change, this paper concludes that there are three dynamic patterns of export industrial structure change: cumulative pattern, diversification pattern and catastrophe pattern, and establishes an analytic framework including the dynamic patterns and main factors. Further more, this paper estimates and analyzes empirically China's export industrial structure change from 1996 to 2006. The main conclusion is that Chinese export industrial structure change developed accumulatively and incrementally in 1996-2001. And the subversive change happened in 2001-2006, which attributed to the factors and technologies from foreign countries.