中国纺织服装产业内贸易现状及决定因素实证研究——基于2002～2010年面板数据的分析

本文从静态和动态角度考察了2002～2010年中国纺织服装业总体、水平型和垂直型产业内贸易现状及其决定因素.实证结果表明:中国纺织服装总体产业内贸易发展缓慢,水平不高,仍以产业间贸易为主;各子产品产业内贸易水平高低不一,以垂直型产业内贸易为主导.经济规模、人均收入水平与我国产业内贸易尤其是水平型产业内贸易呈正相关,且有显著增强趋势;人均收入差异对我国纺织服装VIIT起到正向作用,且影响显著;地理距离对中国纺织服装TIIT、HIIT和VIIT起到了较显著负面影响;人民币汇率变动与中国纺织服装TIIT、HIIT和VIIT正相关,且影响程度有增强趋势;贸易不平衡与我国TIIT、HIIT和VIIT显著负相关,且影响程度有增强趋势.贸易开放度对我国纺织服装TIIT、HIIT和VIIT的影响不显著.

An Empirical Study on the Situation and Determinants of Intra-industry

This paper examines the presents situation and determinants of intra-industry textile and clothing trade from 2002 to 2010 in China.The results show that the common level of intra-industry trade on China's T&A industries is very low,the development of which is very slow,and the style of trade on China's T&A industries is mainly inter-industry trade.Also,on the product level,the level of intra-industry trade is different,and it shows that IIT is the main type,which needs improvement.IIT is found to be positively related to the country-specific variables,such as the market size,per capita income level,exchange rate,and negatively to the geographic proximity of the partners.Economies of scale are seen to have a positive influence on IIT and HIIT,but a negative relationship with VIIT.Although the relative openness of a country's trade regime shows no significant relationship with any form of IIT,a trade imbalance does affect TIIT,HIIT and VIIT flows.Finally it gives some competitiveness-fostering suggestions for the development of China's T&A intra-industry trade.