规模报酬递增的增长模型——李约瑟之谜解释

本文建立了一个规模报酬递增的增长模型,用以解释李约瑟之谜,即“为什么工业革命没有发生在中国,而是发生在西欧”。模型结果显示,在农业社会,人口增长率越高,技术进步速率越快。不过,到工业革命前夕,技术进步内在机制发生变化,人口增长率与技术进步速率呈负相关关系,却与人口存量呈正相关关系。这一改变是李约瑟之谜的症结所在。

The Growth Model with Increasing Return to Scale

In order to explain Needham Puzzle - why the industrial revotunon did not originate in China, this paper suggests a model with increasing return to scale. By the model, we can acquire the proposition that the velocity of technological development in agriculture society depends on population. However, in an industrial society, the way of technological development changed. It has a reverse correlation with population growth rate.