中国农地利用碳排放及影响因素研究:1990—2016年

基于化肥、灌溉、农药、农膜等6方面碳源测算了1990—2016年我国农地利用碳排放总量、省级农地利用碳排放量以及相关驱动影响因素。研究结果显示:(1)我国农地利用碳排放量处于增长状态,年均增长率为3.13%,农业碳排放强度逐年下降,年均增长率为-1.94%。(2)各省份农地利用碳排放与农业产值相关,同时受制于省级碳排放强度的作用。(3)经过因素分解发现,农业就业占比和碳排放强度对碳排放起抑制作用,但在总量上还低于农业人均GDP和人口规模对碳排放的促进作用,因此我国农地利用碳排放呈现增长态势。

A study on Carbon Emission and Its Influencing Factors of Agriculture Land in China:1990-2016

Based on six carbon sources,such as chemical fertilizer,irrigation,pesticide and agricultural film,this paper calculates the total carbon emission,the provincial carbon emissions of agriculture land and its driving factors in China from 1990 to 2016.The results shows China’s carbon emissions from agricultural land are increasing,with an average annual growth rate of 3.13%,and the intensity of agricultural carbon emission is decreasing year by year,with an average annual growth rate of-1.94%.The carbon emission of agricultural land in each province is subject to agricultural output and carbon emission intensity.Through factor decomposition,it is found that the proportion of agricultural employment and the intensity of carbon emissions have a restraining effect on carbon emissions,but it is still lower than the promoting effect of agricultural per capita GDP and population,so the carbon emissions of agricultural land in China show an increasing trend.