中国在全球生产网络中的转型路径与双边贸易失衡的定量分析——基于对垂直专业化和转口贸易修正后的双边贸易数据

在讨论全球生产网络转型时,中国与其他国家或地区的真实贸易往来情况是重要的研究基础。由于受到进口中间品价值转移和香港地区转口贸易的双重影响,传统贸易统计方法不能准确反映中国的双边贸易往来情况。本文着重于修正上述影响,并通过分析修正后的双边贸易数据和竞争力权重变化,揭示出中国在全球生产网络中的转型路径。本文认为,中国所处的生产网络是一个由美、英、德、法等国构成的需求层面与由中、日、韩等国构成的供给层面共同组成的供需体系。目前,在华跨国企业有将生产过程逐步向生产链上游拓展的趋势,东亚生产网络中的非核心中端部分呈现中国本土化和内部化特征。同时,处于生产链下游的低端劳动密集型行业正在向中国以外转移。这种向生产链上游拓展的趋势在短期内难以弥补低端行业转出中国所带来的缺口,中国出口增长放慢的趋势短期内不会显著改善。

Specialization and Reexports are Removed

In discussing the transition of the global production networks,the real trade situations between China and other countries or regions are important.Due to the double impact of the transfer of value of imports of intermediate goods and Hong Kong reexports,traditional trade statistical methods can not accurately reflect China′s bilateral trade situations.This paper focuses on the amendment to the above effect,and reveals the transition path of China in the global production networks by contrast revised bilateral trade data and the change of competitive weight.It believes that global production networks are composed of a demand level of the United States,Britain,Germany,and France and a supply level of China,Japanese and Korea.Currently,Some Chinese OEM enterprises expand to the upper production chain gradually,and non-core part of production chains in the East Asian production networks show a localization and internalization characteristic.