我国中央银行数量型货币调控面临的挑战与转型方向

本文在对我国中央银行以数量目标和工具为主的货币政策所面临的问题进行详细分析之后指出:当前我国货币数量目标的可控性、与最终目标的相关性及可测性等方面并不理想,且容易引发顺周期操作,致使货币政策的有效性下降和政策行为扭曲,并最终加剧我国经济失衡。随着金融市场化改革的深入和金融市场的迅速发展,我国的微观经济主体已对利率和汇率等价格变量具备了一定的敏感度,金融机构的资产定价和风险管理的水平也逐渐提高,中央银行货币政策已具备了向利率间接货币调控转型的基本条件。

Challenges to China’s Quantity-based Monetary Policy and the Solutions

In this paper,we discuss the challenges to China’s nowadays quantity-based monetary policy,in which the controllability,relativity and measurement of the aggregate intermediate target are unsatisfactory,inducing pro-cyclical and reducing the effectiveness of the policy,and then worsening the economy.With the progress of market-orientated reform and the development of financial market,market players can adapt to a liberalized interest/exchange rate environment and the pricing and risk management capabilities of the financial institutions can be enhanced.In a word,we have already met the basic requirements for the transition to the price-based monetary policy.